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Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?

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  • Cletus C. Coughlin
  • Patricia S. Pollard

Abstract

The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were concentrated in foreign markets whose purchases from the United States expanded faster than the national increase in exports. The competitive effect is what remains after accounting for these two effects. Coughlin and Pollard find that the competitive effect, which in previous research was related to increases in human capital per worker, is the key determinant of a state?s relative export performance. Furthermore, the industry mix and destination effects, which are of similar importance, are generally dominated by the competitive effect in accounting for a state?s relative export performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2001. "Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jan), pages 25-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:jan:p:25-40:n:v.83no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1999. "Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 33-46.
    2. Finger, J M & Kreinin, M E, 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 905-912, December.
    3. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000. "State exports and the Asian crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jan), pages 3-14.
    4. Ricardo C. Gazel & R. Keith Schwer, 1998. "Growth of International Exports among the States: Can a Modified Shift-Share Analysis Explain it?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(2), pages 185-204, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2017. "Diversification and Specialization of U.S. States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-91, Winter.
    2. Tomasz Brodzicki & Stanislaw Uminski, 2013. "International trade relations of enterprises established in Poland's regions: gravity model panel estimation," Working Papers 1301, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
    3. Andrew J. Cassey, 2011. "State Foreign Export Patterns," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 308-329, October.
    4. -, 2004. "The convergent/divergent economic trajectories of Puerto Rico and the United States," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 27559, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Chad R. Wilkerson & Megan D. Williams, 2010. "The export potential of Tenth District states," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 95(Q III), pages 93-114.
    6. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:2:p:239-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Larry Davidson, 2004. "Regional Integration of US Border States with Canada: Evidence from US State Exports, 1996 to 2001," Working Papers 2004-16, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Christian Nsiah & Chen Wu & Walter Mayer, 2012. "An analysis of US State’s export performance in the Asian Market," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 533-550, October.
    9. Andrew J. Cassey, 2010. "State Export Behavior and Barriers," Working Papers 2010-14, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    10. Neri, Frank & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2004. "Income Disparities and Trends in Manufactured Exports Across the States and Territories of Australia: 1989/90 - 2000/01," Economics Working Papers wp04-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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