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Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports

Author

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  • Cletus C. Coughlin
  • Patricia S. Pollard

Abstract

The Asian financial and economic crisis has attracted much attention to the trade links among the United States and countries throughout Asia. Until the crisis, U.S. exports to East Asia were growing rapidly. In this article, Patricia S. Pollard and Cletus C. Coughlin examine the abrupt decline in exports and provide estimates of the sizes of the export shock both to the U.S. economy as a whole and to specific sectors. More than half the industries they studied experienced declines in exports to East Asia of more than 15 percent; however, focusing solely on the export data overstates the importance of these declines for the industries in question. The effect of the decline depends on the extent to which that industry relies on the East Asian market to sell its output. Incorporating the export declines with the market share data indicates the extent to which each industry has been affected. For most industries, the decline in exports lowered growth by 0.4 percentage points or less. For some industries, such as the nonelectrical machinery industry, the export shock reduced output by 1 percent or more.

Suggested Citation

  • Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1999. "Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 33-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1999:i:mar:p:33-46:n:2
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    1. Marcus Noland & Li-Gang Liu & Sherman Robinson, 1998. "Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa56, April.
    2. Robert G. Valletta, 1998. "East Asia's impact on Twelfth District exports," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov20.
    3. Michelle Clark Neely, 1999. "Paper tigers? How the Asian economies lost their bite," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 4-9.
    4. Ricardo C. Gazel & Russell L. Lamb, 1998. "Will the Tenth District catch the Asian flu?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q II), pages 9-26.
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    1. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2001. "Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jan), pages 25-40.
    2. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000. "State exports and the Asian crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jan), pages 3-14.
    3. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Global Shocks and the U.S. Economy : a speech at the \"The Euro Area: Staying the Course through Uncertainties\" BDF Symposium and 34th SUERF Colloquium sponsored by Banque de France and the," Speech 1049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. William R. Emmons & Frank A. Schmid, 2000. "The Asian crisis and the exposure of large U.S. firms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jan), pages 15-34.

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    Keywords

    Financial crises - Asia; Asia;

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