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Fertility and Internal Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Pei-Ju Liao
  • Ping Wang
  • Yin-Chi Wang
  • Chong K. Yip

Abstract

While there is a renewed literature connecting internal migration to various issues related to structural transformation such as urban labor and housing markets, the relationship between internal migration and demographic transition is much under-studied despite its importance in the process of economic development. Our article fills this knowledge gap. By constructing a simple dynamic framework in which fertility and rural-urban migration decisions are both determined, we show that more-rapid urban productivity advancement can lead to a positive relationship between migration and fertility. Using cross-country data analysis, we support our theory, establishing that both migration and fertility rates are higher in less-developed countries than in advanced economies. Our results imply that policies that may help reduce the cost of urban living or enhance urban benefits would be useful for productive structural transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong K. Yip, 2020. "Fertility and Internal Migration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(4), pages 429-445, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:89128
    DOI: 10.20955/r.102.429-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund & Yang Tang & Ping Wang, 2023. "Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 413-440, April.
    3. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong K. Yip, 2022. "Educational choice, rural–urban migration and economic development," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(1), pages 1-67, July.
    4. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    5. Marcus Berliant & Ping Wang, 2005. "Dynamic Urban Models: Agglomeration and Growth," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Urban Dynamics and Growth: Advances in Urban Economics, pages 533-581, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    7. Raymond Riezman & Ping Wang & Eric Bond, 2015. "Urbanization and Economic Development: A Tale of Two Barriers," 2015 Meeting Papers 566, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong Kee Yip, 2020. "To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro," NBER Working Papers 27767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    10. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B, 1992. "Public versus Private Investment in Human Capital Endogenous Growth and Income Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 818-834, August.
    11. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebal Oo & Makoto Tsukai, 2022. "Long-Term Impact of Interregional Migrants on Population Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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