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Recession probability indexes: a survey

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  • Chan Guk Huh

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  • Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Recession probability indexes: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 31-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1991:i:fall:p:31-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. William Roberds, 1988. "A quarterly Bayesian VAR model of the US economy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 88-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1991. "Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-14.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Neftici, Salih N., 1982. "Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 225-241, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.

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