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How big is the output gap?

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Abstract

This Economic Letter examines measurement of potential output, focusing on how big the output gap?and the resulting downward pressure on inflation?is today.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2009. "How big is the output gap?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun12.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:jun12:n:2009-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    3. Edge, Rochelle M. & Kiley, Michael T. & Laforte, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2512-2535, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Rannenberg, Ansgar & Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers: A comment," Discussion Papers 2014/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 1-49.
    3. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2017. "The effects of foreign shocks when interest rates are at zero," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 660-684, August.
    4. John C. Williams, 2017. "The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, February.
    6. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
    7. Charles A. Fleischman & John M. Roberts, 2011. "From many series, one cycle: improved estimates of the business cycle from a multivariate unobserved components model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    9. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Output gaps and monetary policy at low interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q I).
    10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017. "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 12-31, April.
    11. Don Nakornthab & Jittapa Prachuabmoh & Tientip Subhanij & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2009. "Challenges in the New Global Macroeconomic and Financial Environment," Working Papers 2009-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    12. Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    13. Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.

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