IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedbcp/y2002ijunp37-95n47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Educational attainment as a constraint on economic growth and social progress

Author

Listed:
  • Yolanda Kodrzycki

Abstract

Unless new policies offset the effects of existing demographic and educational patterns, improvements in labor quality are likely to contribute less to economic growth in the United States in the coming two decades than has been the case since the 1960s. The key reasons for this projection are the relatively slow increase in years of schooling obtained by young adults and the relatively low share of the population in the age group when labor market entry typically occurs. Furthermore, international test scores indicate a continuing mediocre performance for U.S. students on average. These trends suggest that capital formation or technology development would have to provide an offset in order to keep per capita income growth from slowing in coming decades. They also suggest that surges in demand for educated labor, as have occurred periodically in scientific and technical fields, will be challenging to accommodate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yolanda Kodrzycki, 2002. "Educational attainment as a constraint on economic growth and social progress," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 47(Jun), pages 37-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2002:i:jun:p:37-95:n:47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf47/index.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf47/conf47d.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Clark & David Jaeger, 2006. "Natives, the foreign-born and high school equivalents: new evidence on the returns to the GED," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 769-793, October.
    2. Peter Temin, 2002. "Teacher Quality and the Future of America," NBER Working Papers 8898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Cameron, Stephen V & Heckman, James J, 1993. "The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1136, December.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    7. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    8. Glaeser, Edward L. & Scheinkman, JoseA. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1995. "Economic growth in a cross-section of cities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 117-143, August.
    9. Jaewoo Ryoo & Sherwin Rosen, 2004. "The Engineering Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 110-140, February.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jong–Wha Lee & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Schooling Quality in a Cross–Section of Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 465-488, November.
    12. Melissa A. Clark & David Jaeger, 2002. "Natives, the Foreign-Born and High School Equivalents: New Evidence on the Returns to the GED," Working Papers 841, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    13. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
    14. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    15. Paul M. Romer, 2001. "Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand in the Market for Scientists and Engineers?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 1, pages 221-252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Human Capital and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 12-17, May.
    17. repec:fth:stanho:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    19. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    21. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 47-68.
    23. repec:fth:prinin:462 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Jerik Hanushek & Dennis Kimko, 2006. "Schooling, Labor-force Quality, and the Growth of Nations," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 154-193.
    25. Simon, Curtis J., 1998. "Human Capital and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 223-243, March.
    26. Kyriacou, George A., 1991. "Level and Growth Effects of Human Capital: A Cross-Country Study of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working Papers 91-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    27. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    28. David T. Ellwood, 2001. "The Sputtering Labor Force of the 21st Century. Can Social Policy Help?," NBER Working Papers 8321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Peter Temin, 2002. "Teacher Quality and the Future of America," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 285-300, Summer.
    30. Katharine L. Bradbury & Yolanda Kodrzycki & Christopher J. Mayer, 1996. "Spatial and labor market contributions to earnings inequality: an overview," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William R. Keeton & Geoffrey B. Newton, 2006. "Migration in the Tenth District : long-term trends and current developments," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 91(Q III), pages 33-74.
    2. Jessica Dye & Stephani� Rossouw & Gail Pacheco, 2012. "Well-being of women in New Zealand: The changing landscape," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 273-302, December.
    3. Lynn A. Karoly, 2010. "The Role of Education in Preparing Graduates for the Labor Market in the GCC Countries," Working Papers WR-742, RAND Corporation.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    2. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    3. Rogers, Mark Llewellyn, 2008. "Directly unproductive schooling: How country characteristics affect the impact of schooling on growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 356-385, February.
    4. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2009. "Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 66-82, February.
    5. Wößmann, Ludger, 2000. "Specifying Human Capital: A Review, Some Extensions, and Development Effects," Kiel Working Papers 1007, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Md. Rabiul Islam & James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2014. "Quality-Adjusted Human Capital And Productivity Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 757-777, April.
    7. Benos, Nikos & Zotou, Stefania, 2014. "Education and Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 669-689.
    8. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Adams-Kane, Jonathon, 2008. "Institutions, Education, and Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 11800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Cooray, Arusha & Hassan, Gazi Mainul, 2011. "Growth effects of education with the extreme bounds analysis: some evidence from Asia," MPRA Paper 32279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
    12. Marcelo Soto, 2006. "The Causal Effect of Education on Aggregate Income," Working Papers 0605, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    13. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    14. Eric Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2012. "Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 267-321, December.
    15. Eftimoski, Dimitar, 2022. "On the inconclusive effect of human capital on growth: A new look at extended specifications," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 708-727.
    16. Middendorf Torge, 2006. "Human Capital and Economic Growth in OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(6), pages 670-686, December.
    17. Hideki Toya & Mark Skidmore & Raymond Robertson, 2010. "A Reevaluation of the Effect of Human Capital Accumulation on Economic Growth Using Natural Disasters as an Instrument," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 120-137.
    18. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes And Total Labor Productivity In Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 82435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    19. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    20. João Paulo Pereira, 2005. "Measuring Human Capital in Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 21, pages 16-34, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Education;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2002:i:jun:p:37-95:n:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.