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Sostituzione o accumulo? Un paradosso nel parco automobilistico italiano

Author

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  • Mert Demir

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Angela Zanoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza)

Abstract

Lo studio esamina le dinamiche della transizione del parco automobilistico in Italia, concentrandosi sulla relazione tra le immatricolazioni di nuovi veicoli elettrici (BEV) e i modelli di rottamazione dei veicoli. Utilizzando dati mensili del periodo 2011-2024, analizziamo se le auto elettriche stanno sostituendo i veicoli esistenti o se si stanno piuttosto sommando al circolante. I nostri risultati rivelano tre elementi chiave: (1) contrariamente alle aspettative, non vi è alcuna evidenza statistica di contrazione del parco automobilistico italiano; (2) la tradizionale correlazione tra le immatricolazioni di nuovi veicoli e le radiazioni si è indebolita dopo l’introduzione degli incentivi BEV nel 2019; e (3) le immatricolazioni BEV non stanno sostituendo in modo significativo le vendite di veicoli a combustione. Lo studio rileva inoltre che, in Italia, le automobili rimangono in uso più a lungo di quanto precedentemente ipotizzato. Questi risultati suggeriscono che gli attuali strumenti politici potrebbero essere insufficienti a guidare la trasformazione desiderata del parco veicoli italiano.

Suggested Citation

  • Mert Demir & Angela Zanoni, 2024. "Sostituzione o accumulo? Un paradosso nel parco automobilistico italiano," Briefs, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:fbrief:2024.05
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Bento & Kevin Roth & Yiou Zuo, 2018. "Vehicle Lifetime and Scrappage Behavior: Trends in the U.S. Used Car Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 159-184, January.
    2. Monica Bonacina & Antonio Sileo, 2024. "Gli Italiani non sognano auto elettriche: la difficile decarbonizzazione del parco circolante," Briefs, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, April.
    3. Antonio Bento & Kevin Roth & Yiou Zuo, 2018. "Vehicle Lifetime Trends and Scrappage Behavior in the U.S. Used Car Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
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