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A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Estimate the Import of Smuggling in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Hossien Pourkazemi

    (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.)

  • Mohammad Naser Sherafat

    (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.)

  • Zahra Delfan Azari

    (Faculty of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author).)

Abstract

The consequences of illegal import as part of underground economy indicate that why it is important to study smuggling. In this paper, fuzzy logic approach is applied to compute import smuggling in Iran from 1978 to 2010 through three explanatory variables including import tariffs, exchange gap and trade openness. According to the results, relative volume of import smuggling to official import during the years of war and revolution, and the years of first, second, third and fourth development plan was approximately estimated 18.2, 17.6, 29, 32.2 and 30.8 percent, respectively. While during the entire period it has been 24 percent, on average. Finally, the results indicate an increasing trend for import smuggling as it has increased from 19.3 percent in 1978 to 27.6 percent of official import in 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Hossien Pourkazemi & Mohammad Naser Sherafat & Zahra Delfan Azari, 2013. "A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Estimate the Import of Smuggling in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(2), pages 107-129, spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:18:y:2013:i:2:p:107
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    2. Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
    3. Ferrier, Peyton Michael, 2009. "The Economics of Agricultural and Wildlife Smuggling," Economic Research Report 55951, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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