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Modeling of the Deferred Demand on the Market of Household Appliances

Author

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  • Mayya Valerianovna Dubovik
  • Venera Maratovna Timiryanova
  • Alexander Fedorovich Zimin

Abstract

Purpose of the study. Development of a mathematical tool for assessing and predicting strategies of deferred demand on the market of household appliances. Methodological basis of the study is the basic tenets of neo-Keynesian economic theory and methods of statistical analysis: the method of grouping and binary regression. Information basis is analytical materials, expert opinions and statistical data of the Federal Service of State Statistics of Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan. A survey was carried out by the example of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The study analyzed more than 800 questionnaires of consumers of household appliances. The study results in the authors’ definition of deferred demand as an economic category, provides main reasons for the transfer of part of the demand into deferred in the face of uncertainty, identifies factors that shape deferred demand on the market of household appliances; marks general and specific features of the market of household appliances in the Republic of Bashkortostan distinguishing it from the Russian market as a whole; a model of binary regression was built and tested; a strong correlation between the amount of deferred demand, price index, dollar exchange rate, unemployment rate and the index of consumer confidence was proved, which allows to predict the subsequent deferred demand for household appliances. The proposed study results represent a continuation and development of the study of consumer demand and behavior conducted by the authors in this field.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayya Valerianovna Dubovik & Venera Maratovna Timiryanova & Alexander Fedorovich Zimin, 2017. "Modeling of the Deferred Demand on the Market of Household Appliances," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2B), pages 149-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:2b:p:149-161
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    Cited by:

    1. Venera Timiryanova & Aleksandr Zimin & Ekaterina Zhilina, 2018. "The Spatial Change of the Indicators of Consumer Market," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 164-175.
    2. Oleksandr Dorokhov & Liudmyla Dorokhova & Milica Delibasic & Justas Streimikis, 2017. "Consumer Behavior Modeling - Fuzzy Logic Model for Air Purifiers Choosing," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(4), pages 61-77.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; deferred demand; consumer behavior; savings; expectations; consumer confidence index; binary regression model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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