EU Transport Modal Shift Versus the Regulatory Requirements for Transport Sector’s Green Transformation Towards Climate Neutrality

Purpose: The main aim of the study is to: 1/ identify and evaluate main trends and structural changes that occurred in the EU transport sector and selected EU countries in the field of its modal shift, 2/ compare the selected EU countries in terms of promoting environmentally friendly transport sector’s transformation towards sustainability, 3/ assess whether EU regulatory requirements concerning green transport transformation, expressed in its modal shift, have been met and to what extent. Design/Methodology/Approach: At conducting this research, the following methods were applied: 1. critical analysis of literature (CLA), 2. factor analysis (FA), 3. mining of data obtained mainly from EU statistical sources, 4. market analysis (MA) and 5. comparative analysis (CA). Findings: The research results indicate that the market model of the transport modal split in the EU, established at the end of the 20th century, has not changed significantly. This means that the main goal of the EU's transport policy, set out in the 1991 White Paper, i.e., the reconstruction of the transport system on the principles of sustainable development, has not been achieved. Despite numerous actions taken by the EC to promote the development of environmentally friendly modes of transport, the traditional EU model of transport modal split on land has remained unchanged. Only by taking into account the freight transport performance measured in tonne-km of all modes of transport, i.e., also maritime and air cargo transport, it can it be concluded that the EU regulator has achieved its goal in this respect. This means that the green transport transformation strategy implemented in the years 1991-2019 turned out to be ineffective in the pro-ecological transformation of the EU transport sector. Hence, the need for more radical actions that have been taken in EU since 2020 as part of the concept of the New Green Deal and the Sustainable & Smart Mobility Strategy. Practical Implications: The study reveals the significant inconsistencies existed between the real, regulated by market mechanism transport sphere and the regulatory one, determined by EU transport policy. Therefore, this study, clearly indicating the need to maintain the current model of implementing the sustainable development strategy of transport, based on restrictive administrative rules and tools, determines the most effective path of decarbonization of the EU transport sector. Originality/Value: The research that may be treated as a kind of case study, highlights the interdependencies that exist between the real and regulatory spheres of transport systems and the significance as well as effectiveness of the last one in the meeting the EU goals in their green transformation towards decarbonization. In this sense, it can contribute to enriching the theory on management and economics sciences in the field of choosing appropriate regulatory tools at the stage of difficult change management in the transport systems, caused by speeding up their transformation towards sustainable and smart development.