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What Determines Crime: Prosperity or Poverty?

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Sypion
  • Pawel Terefenko
  • Michael Leitner
  • Marek Dutkowski
  • Andrzej Lysko
  • Tomasz M. Komorowski

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the socioeconomic determinants of crime on a local scale. Three research questions were asked. (1) Do prosperity or poverty indicators better determine crime? (2) Which socioeconomic variables are most strongly correlated with crime? (3) Which types of crimes are most influenced by socioeconomic variables? Design/Methodology/Approach: The research area was Szczecin in Poland (population of approximately 400,000). The dependent variables included six crime types reported in 2017, and the independent variables included three indicators of poverty and three indicators of prosperity. The dataset was analyzed using linear regression and random forest approaches to further investigate the statistical characteristics of variables, obtaining the following answers to our research questions obtained. Findings: (1) The variables of poverty determine the occurrence of crime more than those related to prosperity. (2) The variables of poverty related to low income, including population assisted by the Municipal Family Assistance Center per 1,000 persons and unemployment per 1,000 persons have the strongest influence on crime. (3) Drug crimes per 1,000 persons are the most strongly influenced by socioeconomic variables, while theft of property per 1,000 persons revealed no impact. Practical Implications: The study highlights the strong influence of poverty, particularly unemployment, on crime rates and suggests limited impact of prosperity on crime prevention. Originality/Value: The article presents the results of own desk research. The issue presented has not previously been addressed in discussions published internationally.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Sypion & Pawel Terefenko & Michael Leitner & Marek Dutkowski & Andrzej Lysko & Tomasz M. Komorowski, 2024. "What Determines Crime: Prosperity or Poverty?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 394-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxvii:y:2024:i:2:p:394-424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Zahid Yousaf & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Saad M. Alotaibi & Ahmad Kabbani & Khalid Zaman, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: two-step GMM estimates," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Alves, Luiz G.A. & Ribeiro, Haroldo V. & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2018. "Crime prediction through urban metrics and statistical learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 435-443.
    3. Mamta Mittal & Lalit Mohan Goyal & Jasleen Kaur Sethi & D. Jude Hemanth, 2019. "Monitoring the Impact of Economic Crisis on Crime in India Using Machine Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1467-1485, April.
    4. Świecka, Beata & Terefenko, Paweł & Paprotny, Dominik, 2021. "Transaction factors’ influence on the choice of payment by Polish consumers," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; prosperity; poverty; linear regression; random forest.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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