IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxxviiy2024i1p82-95.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the Correlation between Central Bank Interest Rates and Inflation on the Example of Poland within the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Borawski
  • Aneta Beldycka-Borawska
  • Ireneusz Zuchowski
  • Tomasz Rokicki
  • Andrzej Parzonko
  • Lisa Holden
  • Renata Marks-Bielska

Abstract

Purpose: The main aim of this study was to determine the relationship between inflation and interest rates of the Central Bank in Poland with the background of European integration and the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Central Bank of Poland (CBP) was the main source of data for the analysis (1998-2023). We used different methods which helped to analyze the changes in inflation and interest rates in Poland, for example Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF test), Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARIMA model) and the regression analysis using the Classical Method of Least Square. Findings: The study demonstrated that inflation will decrease steadily in Poland due to relatively high interest rates. The Central Bank of Poland and government agencies should implement cohesive policies to reduce inflation. The Central Bank of Poland has increased interest rates to fight inflation, whereas the wide range of social welfare programs introduced by the government has contributed to higher inflation. Practical implications: The results will fill in the gap concerning the financial policy of Central Bank. Originality/Value: The new information about impact of interest rate on inflation and a ARiMA model was presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Borawski & Aneta Beldycka-Borawska & Ireneusz Zuchowski & Tomasz Rokicki & Andrzej Parzonko & Lisa Holden & Renata Marks-Bielska, 2024. "Analyzing the Correlation between Central Bank Interest Rates and Inflation on the Example of Poland within the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 82-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxvii:y:2024:i:1:p:82-95
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ersj.eu/journal/3350/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomasz Lysiak, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(2), pages 185-212.
    2. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Erginbay Ugurlu & Yusuf Muratoglu, 2012. "Income Inequality and Inflation in the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 127-140.
    3. Nojković, Aleksandra & Petrović, Pavle, 2015. "Monetary policy rule in inflation targeting emerging European countries: A discrete choice approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 577-595.
    4. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Nejib Hachicha & Amira Hakim, 2022. "The International Spillover Among Sectors and the Interconnectedness to the Global Inflation Cycle," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(1), pages 3-11.
    5. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2024. "Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1883-1929, June.
    6. Anatolijs Prohorovs, 2022. "Russia’s War in Ukraine: Consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2022. "Forecasting inflation rates with multi-level international dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Damir Piplica, 2011. "Corruption And Inflation In Transition Eu Member Countries," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 20(2), pages 469-506, december.
    9. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2021. "Inflation and cryptocurrencies revisited: A time-scale analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    10. Hokey Min, 2022. "Examining the Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices from Energy Supply Chain Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Equiza-Goñi, Juan, 2023. "Euro area inflation linked debt: An evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    12. Liñares-Zegarra, José M. & Willesson, Magnus, 2021. "The effects of negative interest rates on cash usage: Evidence for EU countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    14. Tomasz Lyziak, 2016. "Survey measures of inflation expectations in Poland: are they relevant from the macroeconomic perspective?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 33-52.
    15. Paweł Gajewski, 2017. "Sources of Regional Inflation in Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 261-276, May.
    16. Łyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    17. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    18. de Jong, Piet & Penzer, Jeremy, 2004. "The ARMA model in state space form," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 119-125, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Borawski & Aneta Beldycka-Borawska & Tomasz Rokicki & Lisa Holden & Ireneusz Zuchowski & Katarzyna Brodzinska, 2024. "Spatial Differentiation of Poland’s Gross Domestic Product," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 423-436.
    2. Piotr Borawski & Aneta Beldycka-Borawska & Tomasz Rokicki & Lisa Holden, 2024. "The Role of Money Supply in Shaping Poland’s Gross Domestic Product," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 69-81.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piotr Borawski & Aneta Beldycka-Borawska & Tomasz Rokicki & Lisa Holden & Ireneusz Zuchowski & Katarzyna Brodzinska, 2024. "Spatial Differentiation of Poland’s Gross Domestic Product," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 423-436.
    2. Bórawski, Piotr & Bełdycka-Bórawska, Aneta & Jankowski, Krzysztof Jóżef & Dubis, Bogdan & Dunn, James W., 2020. "Development of wind energy market in the European Union," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 691-700.
    3. Kovacs, Oliver, 2024. "Exaptationary Industry 4.0: Graphene as pathfinder?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Piotr Bórawski & Marek Bartłomiej Bórawski & Andrzej Parzonko & Ludwik Wicki & Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska & James William Dunn, 2021. "Development of Organic Milk Production in Poland on the Background of the EU," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    7. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Gabriela Antosova & Helmuth Yesid Arias Gomez, 2024. "Recent Long-Term Management of Relation Across Czech- Republic Price Indices and Exchange Rates," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special B), pages 129-146.
    10. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    11. Yun Feng & Weijie Hou & Yuping Song, 2024. "Tail risk forecasting and its application to margin requirements in the commodity futures market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1513-1529, August.
    12. Dongxiao Niu & Yi Liang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on EMD and GRNN Optimized by FOA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Ye Wang & Rafael Matta & Erasmo Giambona & José-Luis Peydró, 2020. "Quantitative Easing, Investment, and Safe Assets: The Corporate-Bond Lending Channel," Working Papers 1179, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    15. Kotkowski, Radoslaw & Polasik, Michal, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic increases the divide between cash and cashless payment users in Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    17. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    19. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    20. Tetiana Shkoda & Oleksandr Savych, 2022. "Transformation Of Marketing In Wartime And Postwar," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(5).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; interest rates; European integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxvii:y:2024:i:1:p:82-95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersj.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.