An Estimation of the Number of Lost Airport Passenger Services as a Result of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Poland

Purpose: The main aim of the research is to present the scale of the number of lost passenger transport as a result of limiting the activity of the aviation industry in Poland in the cross-section of the most important civil airports. Design/Methodology/Approach: An analysis of passenger traffic in the most important airports in Poland was carried out. The methods of regression analysis and forecasting were applied for the analyzes. In order to estimate the impact of restrictions on the operation of the aviation industry on passenger traffic in Poland across individual airports, the parameters of trends in 2011-2019 were estimated. Then, the models for 2020 (March-December) were predicted. As a result, the volume of lost traffic (in thousands of passengers) was obtained and the scale of changes in percent was determined. Linear and nonlinear regression models with index variables were used for the research. Findings: The cause of severe losses is not only the pandemic itself, but it may be the lack of a coherent management system in the COVID-19 crisis. Taking into account the history of the development of passenger air services and the importance they have played for economic development in the most important economies, it should be stated that the crisis of 2020 may be a predictor of significant changes in the management system in the long term. Practical Implications: The introduced restrictions and limitations were poorly coordinated at the national and international levels, which resulted in chaos and a feeling of uncertainty as to the development of the situation, which in turn prevents rational actions by aviation market participants, including airlines. Originality/Value: This article is an original contribution in the study of the impact of pandemic restrictions on passenger air transport in Poland, using regression analysis and forecasting methods.