IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erh/journl/v2y2010i1p36-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causal Relations via Econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Asad Zaman

    (International Islamic University of Islamabad)

Abstract

Applied econometric work takes a superficial approach to causality. Understanding economic affairs, making good policy decisions, and progress in the economic discipline depend on our ability to infer causal relations from data. We review the dominant approaches to causality in econometrics, and suggest why they fail to give good results. We feel the problem cannot be solved by traditional tools, and requires some out-of-the-box thinking. Potentially promising approaches to solutions are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:36-56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.era.org.tr/makaleler/29031037.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, April.
    3. Hendry, David F., 2000. "Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293545.
    4. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    5. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    6. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    7. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    8. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, September.
    9. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    10. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2007. "The Economic Lives of the Poor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, Winter.
    11. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2010. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521154741, September.
    12. Mark Blaug, 1998. "Disturbing Currents in Modern Economics," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 11-34, May.
    13. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    14. Gary Burtless, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring.
    15. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Keuzenkamp,Hugo A., 2000. "Probability, Econometrics and Truth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521553599, September.
    17. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Duflo, Esther, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-299, September.
    18. Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
    19. Yoshihisa Baba & David F. Hendry & Ross M. Starr, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960–1988," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61.
    20. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
    21. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    22. Falk, Armin & Fehr, Ernst, 2003. "Why labour market experiments?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-406, August.
    23. Hoover, Kevin D., 2004. "Lost Causes," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 149-164, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asad Zaman, 2012. "Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 99-122, September.
    2. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    3. Ingianni, Andrea, 2012. "Intra-European Union trade openness and new members’ output convergence: A time-series analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    4. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
    5. S. Cem Karaman, 2015. "Effective Use of Foreign Debt, the Case for Turkey," International Journal of Social Science Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 107-124, September.
    6. Zahid Asghar, 2011. "A Structural Approach for Testing Causality," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, September.
    7. Asad Zaman & Taseer Salahuddin, 2020. "Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable?," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 50-74, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schwerdt, Guido & Messer, Dolores & Woessmann, Ludger & Wolter, Stefan C., 2012. "The impact of an adult education voucher program: Evidence from a randomized field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(7-8), pages 569-583.
    2. Arouri, Mohamed & Ben Youssef, Adel & Nguyen, Cuong, 2017. "Does urbanization reduce rural poverty? Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-270.
    3. Dolores Messer & Guido Schwerdt & Ludger Woessmann & Stefan C. Wolter, 2013. "Labor Market Effects of Adult Education Vouchers: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0094, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    4. Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 3787-3846, Elsevier.
    5. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Mikroökonometrische Evaluation arbeitsmarktpolitischer Massnahmen," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-20, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. R Burger & S du Plessis, 2011. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 21-47, December.
    8. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    9. Sascha O. Becker, 2016. "Using instrumental variables to establish causality," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 250-250, April.
    10. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    11. Costa-Font, Joan & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Do Public Caregiving Subsidies and Supports affect the Provision of Care and Transfers?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Ding, Hong, 2012. "Is government’s help for unemployed people helpful for the society? An Empirical Study on Macro Data of Public Unemployment Spending in OECD Nations," MPRA Paper 43132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    14. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Hoa Quynh, 2015. "Do internal and international remittances matter to health, education and labor of children and adolescents? The case of Vietnam," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 28-34.
    15. Mont, Daniel & Nguyen, Cuong, 2013. "Does Parental Disability Matter to Child Education? Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 88-107.
    16. Michael P. Cameron & Peggy Koopman-Boyden & Matthew Roskruge, 2015. "Labour Force Participation, Human Capital and Wellbeing among Older New Zealanders," Working Papers in Economics 15/07, University of Waikato.
    17. Long Thanh Giang & Cuong Viet Nguyen & Tuyen Quang Tran & Vu Thieu, 2017. "Does Firm Agglomeration Matter to Labor and Education of Local Children? Evidence in Vietnam," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 10(4), pages 1015-1041, December.
    18. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-157, October.
    19. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    20. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Regression; Exogeneity; Hendry Methodology; Natural Experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:36-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. F. Cosar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eratrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.