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Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos. (Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a spatial-Bayesian autoregressive vector approach)

Author

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  • Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado

    (Universidad de Colima, Villa de Álvarez, Colima. México.)

Abstract

Ante los recientes episodios de intensificación en la actividad delictiva en México, llama la atención la escasez de estudios que analizan su relación con las fluctuaciones en la tasa de desempleo. El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en evaluar el impacto que tendría un desajuste que incremente sorpresivamente la tasa de desempleo en los estados de la frontera norte, sobre la actividad criminal, en particular respecto del número de robos. Con este fin, se aplica un VAR bayesiano espacial de acuerdo con la propuesta de LeSage y Cashell (2015). Los resultados sugieren que la respuesta del número de robos es heterogénea en los estados de la frontera norte de México. Por ejemplo: en algunos estados como Chihuahua, el número de robos parece responder de forma transitoria; en tanto que en Tamaulipas, este tipo de delito reacciona en menor medida a las fluctuaciones en su tasa de desempleo y la de sus estados vecinos.

Suggested Citation

  • Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado, 2017. "Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos. (Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a sp," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 25-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxvi:y:2017:i:1:p:25-58
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desempleo; Criminalidad; Robos; Frontera Norte; México; Vector Autorregresivo Espacial Bayesiano;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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