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Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tetsuya Konuki
  • Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte

Abstract

Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tetsuya Konuki & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte, 2016. "Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2016/009, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfdps:2016/009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Foster,Vivien & Rana,Anshul & Gorgulu,Nisan, 2022. "Understanding Public Spending Trends for Infrastructure in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9903, The World Bank.
    2. Ouedraogo, Rasmane & Sourouema, Windemanegda Sandrine, 2018. "Fiscal policy pro-cyclicality in Sub-Saharan African countries: The role of export concentration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 219-229.
    3. Ribeiro, Ana Paula & Carvalho, Vitor & Sanches, Hélder, 2021. "Debt dynamics and fiscal policy stance in Cape Verde: Is there evidence of pro-cyclical behavior?," MPRA Paper 111305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2021. "Non-Linear Response of Fiscal Policy to the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1097-1112.
    5. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Strong, Christine & Yayi, Constant, 2021. "Central bank independence, fiscal deficits and currency union: Lessons from Africa," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 50-70.
    8. Hatzenbuehler, Patrick L. & Mavrotas, George, 2017. "Macroeconomic Factor Influence on Agricultural Program Sustainability in Kaduna State, Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 265415, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    9. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2021. "Cyclical drivers of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from the time-varying heterogeneity approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-67.
    10. William Irungu Nganga & Julien Chevallier & Simon Wagura Ndiritu, 2018. "Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya with comparative nonlinear Granger causalities across East-African countries," Working Papers halshs-01941226, HAL.
    11. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christopher Adam & Enrique Alberola-Ila & Albert Pierres Tejada, 2022. "Covid-19 and the monetary-fiscal policy nexus in Africa," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 121.

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