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The effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in South Africa: a nonlinear ARDL model analysis

Author

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  • Naser Yenus Nuru
  • Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher

Abstract

Purpose - The main purpose of this study is to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of fiscal policy, namely government spending on economic growth over the sample period 2004Q2 up to 2018Q1 for the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach - Nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model is used to examine the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of government spending on economic growth. Findings - The results exhibit the negative change effect of government spending is found to be greater than the positive change effect of government spending on economic growth. Real effective exchange rate is found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth both in the short run and long run. Whereas, inflation rate affects economic growth negatively and significantly in the short run and long run. Originality/value - Previous empirical studies on the effect of fiscal policy on growth, at least for South Africa, consider only the asymmetric short-run effect while this paper extends the literature by incorporating asymmetries into the long-run effect. It provides a detailed analysis to the recent controversies on the effects of fiscal policy on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Naser Yenus Nuru & Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, 2021. "The effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in South Africa: a nonlinear ARDL model analysis," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 229-245, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jeaspp:jeas-06-2020-0088
    DOI: 10.1108/JEAS-06-2020-0088
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Byaro, Mwoya & Pelizzo, Riccardo & Kinyondo, Abel, 2023. "What are the Main Drivers Behind the Acceleration of Tanzania's Economic Growth Over the Past Three Decades?," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 11(4), June.
    2. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Fiscal or monetary? Efficacy of regulatory regimes and energy trilemma of the inflation reduction act (IRA)," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Mlungisi Mokoena & Adrino Mazenda, 2023. "The role of fiscal policy on poverty reduction in South Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Michał Mackiewicz, 2021. "The sustainability of fiscal policy in southern African countries–a comparative empirical perspective," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(2), pages 337-350, April.

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