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Has the credit supply shock asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?

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  • V. Colombo
  • A. Paccagnini

Abstract

We investigate the role played by the credit supply shock across the business cycle in the U.S. over the period 1973 - 2018. We estimate a nonlinear VAR including nominal, real, monetary, and financial variables. According to our results, a credit supply shock triggers asymmetric and negative effects on macroeconomic variables. We find that the state-dependent forecast error variance decomposition of industrial production, employment, and inflation due to the shock is from six to eight times larger in recessions than in normal times.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Colombo & A. Paccagnini, 2020. "Has the credit supply shock asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Working Papers wp1140, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
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    3. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    4. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Finck & Paul Rudel, 2020. "Do Credit Supply Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202026, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    3. Peterson K. Ozili & Olajide Oladipo & Paul Terhemba Iorember, 2023. "Effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 583-599, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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