Asymmetries and Common Cycles in Latin America: Evidence from Markov-Switching Models

Markov-switching models are estimated to characterise expansions and contractions for Latin American countries. In general, univariate analysis results imply that recessions are deeper in absolute magnitude, less persistent, and more volatile than expansions. From an international perspective, it is found that there is not a common Latin American cycle, but there exists some evidence about common regime shifts and cycles between Brazil-Peru and Chile-United States. However, it seems that their causes are very different and related to common shocks and similar policies. Therefore, it is concluded that individual business cycles are largely independent in Latin America.