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Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam

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  • Koubi, Vally
  • Spilker, Gabriele
  • Schaffer, Lena
  • Bernauer, Thomas

Abstract

The argument that environmental change is an important driving force of migration has experienced a strong revival in the climate change context. While various studies predict large environmental migration flows due to climate change and other environmental events, the ex post empirical evidence for this phenomenon is inconclusive. We contribute to the extant literature by focusing on the micro-level. We examine whether and how individual perceptions of different types of environmental stressors induce internal migration. The analysis relies on original survey data from Vietnam including both migrants and non-migrants. The results suggest that individual perceptions of long-term environmental events, such as droughts, significantly reduce migration while perceptions of sudden-onset environmental events, such as floods, significantly increase the likelihood of migration controlling for other determinants of migration. These findings also imply that improving the targeting of aid to environmental disaster-affected areas and the financial and technical support for adaptation to environmental change could be the most productive policy-options. Policymakers, thus, need to implement a wide range of developmental policies in combination with environmental ones in order to improve society’s ability to effectively cope with environmental change and minimize its effect on migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Koubi, Vally & Spilker, Gabriele & Schaffer, Lena & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 197-210.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:79:y:2016:i:c:p:197-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.016
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    2. Maxmillan Martin & Yi hyun Kang & Motasim Billah & Tasneem Siddiqui & Richard Black & Dominic Kniveton, 2017. "Climate-influenced migration in Bangladesh: The need for a policy realignment," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35, pages 357-379, October.
    3. Xia, Chang & Yeh, Anthony Gar-On & Lei, Ziyu, 2024. "Beyond hazard-induced migration: Dissecting everyday mobilities in response to air pollution and extreme cold events at multiple spatial and temporal scales," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    5. Elmallakh, Nelly & Wodon, Quentin, 2021. "Climate Shocks, Migration, and Labor Markets: A Gender Analysis from West Africa," GLO Discussion Paper Series 950, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Susmita Dasgupta & Md. Moqbul Hossain & Mainul Huq & David Wheeler, 2016. "Facing The Hungry Tide: Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, And Household Responses In Coastal Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-25, August.
    7. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2024. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Baronchelli, Adelaide & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2022. "Temperature shocks, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2021. "Tropical Storms and Temporary Migration in Vietnam," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1107-1142, December.
    10. Trong-Anh, TRINH & Simon FEENY & Alberto POSSO, 2021. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Migration: Findings from Vietnam," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    11. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    12. Kelsea B. Best & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Hiba Baroud & Amanda R. Carrico & Katharine M. Donato & Brooke A. Ackerly & Bishawjit Mallick, 2021. "Random forest analysis of two household surveys can identify important predictors of migration in Bangladesh," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 77-100, May.
    13. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Hagen-Zanker, Jessica & Carling, Jørgen & Caso, Nicolás & Rubio, Marcela G., 2025. "The multi-level determinants of international migration aspirations in 25 communities in Africa, Asia and the Middle East," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Tran, Thong Anh, 2019. "Land use change driven out-migration: Evidence from three flood-prone communities in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Mbaye, Linguere Mously & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Natural Disasters and Human Mobility," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 37-56, November.
    17. Debra Javeline & Tracy Kijewski-Correa & Angela Chesler, 2019. "Does it matter if you “believe” in climate change? Not for coastal home vulnerability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 511-532, August.
    18. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    19. Ferreira, João J. & Gomes, Sofia & Lopes, João M. & Zhang, Justin Z., 2023. "Ticking time bombs: The MENA and SSA regions' geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    20. Vally Koubi & Sebastian Stoll & Gabriele Spilker, 2016. "Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 439-451, October.
    21. Shakya, Shishir & Basnet, Subuna & Paudel, Jayash, 2022. "Natural disasters and labor migration: Evidence from Nepal’s earthquake," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    22. Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng & Li, Jun & Qin, Ping, 2023. "Individuals' and households' climate adaptation and mitigation behaviors: A systematic review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    23. Pañeda-Fernández, Irene & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2024. "Exposure to climate disasters and individual migration aspirations: Evidence from Senegal and the Gambia," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2024-101, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    24. Liu, Ziming & Yu, Lu, 2020. "Stay or Leave? The Role of Air Pollution in Urban Migration Choices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    25. Arne Wiig & Minhaj Mahmud & Ivar Kolstad & Päivi Lujala & Sosina Bezu, 2020. "Preparing to leave? Household mobility decisions in climate affected areas of coastal Bangladesh," CMI Working Papers 4, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.

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