IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v35y2016i34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of rural out-migration in Ethiopia: Who stays and who goes?

Author

Listed:
  • Atsede Desta Tegegne

    (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU))

  • Marianne Penker

    (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU))

Abstract

Background: Rural out-migration is a common phenomenon in Ethiopia. Several studies explain migration as the outcome of an individual utility-maximizing decision. This perspective ignores the diversity of migration types and inadequately explains migration in the wider context of mutual and interdependent risk-sharing strategies of household members in response to locational advantages and disadvantages. Objective: The main objective of this study is to examine households' choice of short-term and long-term migration and its underlying determinants in different locational contexts. Methods: Based on the household-centred New Economics Labour Migration (NELM) framework, we conducted quasi-longitudinal and context-specific structured interviews with 553 randomly selected households in four rural study sites in north-west Ethiopia. The determinants of household migration decisions on the one hand and the variables explaining decisions for short-term and long-term migration were analysed in a binary logistic regression and a multinomial logistic regression. Results: The results show a positive relation between migration decisions and household variables such as a higher education status, perceived food insufficiency, female household heads, household-head age, household size, and number of economic activities. Beyond the NELM framework, location in different livelihood zones is also significant in diverging migration strategies. Short-term migration is very much driven by locational advantages and food insufficiency. The propensity for long-term migration significantly increases for households with a higher educational level, but declines with a rising number of dependent household members. Contribution: We contribute to the discussion of ambiguous determinants of migration and provide more differentiated insight into short-term and long-term migration decisions. Besides strong support for the NELM framework, we highlight the relevance of education for long-term migration and locational meso-level factors for short-term migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsede Desta Tegegne & Marianne Penker, 2016. "Determinants of rural out-migration in Ethiopia: Who stays and who goes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(34), pages 1011-1044.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:35:y:2016:i:34
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol35/34/35-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Alan de Brauw & Valerie Mueller, 2012. "Do Limitations in Land Rights Transferability Influence Mobility Rates in Ethiopia?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(4), pages 548-579, August.
    3. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    4. Jessica Heckert, 2015. "New perspective on youth migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(27), pages 765-800.
    5. McKenzie, David & Sasin, Marcin J., 2007. "Migration, remittances, poverty, and human capital : conceptual and empirical challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4272, The World Bank.
    6. Easterlin, Richard A, 2001. "Income and Happiness: Towards an Unified Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 465-484, July.
    7. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim, 2014. "The Role of Rural–Urban Migration in the Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 33-42.
    8. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
    9. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September.
    10. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    11. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Holden, Stein & Zevenbergen, Jaap, 2008. "Rural Land Certification in Ethiopia: Process, Initial Impact, and Implications for Other African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1786-1812, October.
    12. Taylor, J. Edward & Martin, Philip L., 2001. "Human capital: Migration and rural population change," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 457-511, Elsevier.
    13. Alexandre Abreu, 2012. "The New Economics of Labor Migration: Beware of Neoclassicals Bearing Gifts," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 46-67, April.
    14. Belay, Kassa, 2004. "Resettlement of Peasants in Ethiopia," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 27(4), December.
    15. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    16. Zezza, Alberto & Carletto, Calogero & Davis, Benjamin & Winters, Paul, 2011. "Assessing the impact of migration on food and nutrition security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-6, February.
    17. Rachel Sabates-Wheeler & Ricardo Sabates & Adriana Castaldo, 2008. "Tackling Poverty-migration Linkages: Evidence from Ghana and Egypt," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 307-328, June.
    18. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Woldehanna, Tassew, 2013. "Motives to Remit: Evidence from Tracked Internal Migrants in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-23.
    19. Frank Ellis, 2000. "The Determinants of Rural Livelihood Diversification in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302, May.
    20. Blessing Mberu, 2006. "Internal migration and household living conditions in Ethiopia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(21), pages 509-540.
    21. Bezu, Sosina & Holden, Stein, 2014. "Are Rural Youth in Ethiopia Abandoning Agriculture?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 259-272.
    22. B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Agricultural Economics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    23. Sindi, Kirimi & Kirimi, Lilian, 2006. "A Test of the New Economics of Labor Migration Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural Kenya," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21257, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    24. B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Agricultural Economics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    25. Dennis Görlich & Christoph Trebesch, 2008. "Seasonal Migration and Networks—Evidence on Moldova’s Labour Exodus," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 107-133, April.
    26. Daniel Tsegai, 2007. "Migration as a Household Decision: What are the Roles of Income Differences? Insights from the Volta Basin of Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 305-326.
    27. Peter Little & M. Priscilla Stone & Tewodaj Mogues & A. Peter Castro & Workneh Negatu, 2006. "'Moving in place': Drought and poverty dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 200-225.
    28. Mendola, Mariapia, 2008. "Migration and technological change in rural households: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 150-175, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chuangxin Zhao & Manping Tang & Houjian Li, 2022. "The Effects of Vocational-Skills Training on Migrant Workers’ Willingness to Settle in Urban Areas in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Chaudhary, Ashok Kumar & Pandit, Ram & Burton, Michael, 2022. "Farmyard manure use and adoption of agricultural mechanization among smallholders in the Mahottari District, Nepal," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Fassil Eshetu & Jema Haji & Mengistu Ketema & Abule Mehare, 2023. "Impact of Rural Out-Migration on Vulnerability to Rural Multidimensional Poverty in Southern Ethiopia," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1175-1209, September.
    4. Mussa, E.C. & Mirzabaev, A. & Admassie, A. & Rukundo, E.N., 2018. "Effects of childhood work on long-term out-migration decision in rural Ethiopia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276004, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Martín, Iván & Nori, Michele & Bacchi, Alessia, 2017. "Effects of Youth Migration on Agricultural Production and Employment in the Rural Areas of Origin in Tunisia," 2017 Sixth AIEAA Conference, June 15-16, Piacenza, Italy 263007, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Samuel Tumwesigye & Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx & Alfonse Opio & Jean Poesen & Matthias Vanmaercke & Ronald Twongyirwe & Anton Van Rompaey, 2021. "Who and Why? Understanding Rural Out-Migration in Uganda," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Herrera-Almanza, Catalina & Sahn, David E., 2020. "Childhood Determinants of Internal Youth Migration in Senegal," IZA Discussion Papers 12988, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Mengistu Dessalegn & Liza Debevec & Alan Nicol & Eva Ludi, 2023. "A Critical Examination of Rural Out-Migration Studies in Ethiopia: Considering Impacts on Agriculture in the Sending Communities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Catalina Herrera Almanza & David E. Sahn, 2020. "Childhood determinants of internal youth migration in Senegal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(45), pages 1335-1366.
    10. Kerilyn Schewel & Sonja Fransen, 2018. "Formal Education and Migration Aspirations in Ethiopia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 555-587, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan de Brauw & Valerie Mueller & Tassew Woldehanna, 2018. "Does Internal Migration Improve Overall Well-Being in Ethiopia?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(3), pages 367-367.
    2. Catalina Herrera Almanza & David E. Sahn, 2020. "Childhood determinants of internal youth migration in Senegal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(45), pages 1335-1366.
    3. Marta Schoch, 2020. "Essays on political economy, inequality and development," Economics PhD Theses 0120, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Katrina Kosec & Hosaena Ghebru & Brian Holtemeyer & Valerie Mueller & Emily Schmidt, 2018. "The Effect of Land Access on Youth Employment and Migration Decisions: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 931-954.
    5. Kosec, Katrina & Ghebru, Hosaena & Holtemeyer, Brian & Mueller, Valerie & Schmidt, Emily, 2016. "The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1594, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Herrera-Almanza, Catalina & Sahn, David E., 2020. "Childhood Determinants of Internal Youth Migration in Senegal," IZA Discussion Papers 12988, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim, 2014. "The Role of Rural–Urban Migration in the Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 33-42.
    8. Tocco, Barbara & Davidova, Sophia & Bailey, Alastair, 2014. "Labour adjustments in agriculture: evidence from Romania," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 116(2), pages 1-7, August.
    9. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    10. Zhao, Sudan & Jiang, Yongmu, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of rural–urban migration and migrant earnings on land efficiency: Empirical evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Ubaid Ali & Mazhar Mughal & Lionel de Boisdeffre, 2023. "Migrant remittances, agriculture investment and cropping patterns," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 899-920, September.
    12. Ashira Menashe-Oren, 2020. "Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(3), pages 57-98.
    13. Shreya Nupur & Meghna Dutta, 2024. "Determinants of Migration from Poor Households in India: An Empirical Investigation," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 67(3), pages 829-847, September.
    14. Mengistu Dessalegn & Liza Debevec & Alan Nicol & Eva Ludi, 2023. "A Critical Examination of Rural Out-Migration Studies in Ethiopia: Considering Impacts on Agriculture in the Sending Communities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    15. Judit Kiss, 2023. "The political economy of remittances:the case of Sub-Saharan Africa," IWE Working Papers 270, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    16. Görlich, Dennis & Trebesch, Christoph, 2006. "Mass migration and seasonality: evidence on Moldova's labour exodus," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 435, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Chinedu Obi & Fabio Bartolini & Marijke D’Haese, 2020. "International migration, remittance and food security during food crises: the case study of Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 207-220, February.
    18. Hirvonen, Kalle & Lilleør, Helene Bie, 2015. "Going Back Home: Internal Return Migration in Rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 186-202.
    19. Hernandez-Hernandez, Emilio & Sam, Abdoul G. & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio & Chen, Joyce J., 2012. "Does the insurance effect of public and private transfers favor financial deepening? evidence from rural Nicaragua," MPRA Paper 38339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:got:cegedp:56 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Garcia, Pablo M & Rodriguez-Montemayor, Eduardo, 2010. "A primer of international migration: The Latin American experience and a proposal for a research agenda," MPRA Paper 24147, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    determinants; binary logistic regression; short-term migration; long-term migration; livelihood zones; household interviews;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:35:y:2016:i:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.