IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v183y2024ics0305750x24002006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Labor Market Worsening Effects of a Resource Bust: Evidence from the Crude Oil Price Shock in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • Parra-Cely, Sergio
  • Zanoni, Wladimir

Abstract

To evaluate the effects of a negative oil price shock on individual labor market outcomes, we leverage the interaction of exogenous changes in global oil prices with predetermined geographical variation in oil dependency across Ecuadorian cantons. Difference-in-differences estimates show a significant decline in wages and non-labor earnings, moderate adjustments in working hours, but no impact on labor market participation following the resource bust. Decreased labor demand from public and private sectors in oil-producing areas, along with increased exposure of informal workers to oil-price volatility, serve as the main mechanisms explaining our findings. While we observe occupational sorting, we cannot exclude the possibility of homogeneous effects across socio-demographic groups, nor the existence of industry and geographic spillover effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Parra-Cely, Sergio & Zanoni, Wladimir, 2024. "The Labor Market Worsening Effects of a Resource Bust: Evidence from the Crude Oil Price Shock in Ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:183:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24002006
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106730
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X24002006
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106730?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando M. Arag?n & Juan Pablo Rud, 2013. "Natural Resources and Local Communities: Evidence from a Peruvian Gold Mine," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-25, May.
    2. Joseph Marchand & Jeremy Weber, 2018. "Local Labor Markets And Natural Resources: A Synthesis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 469-490, April.
    3. Grant Miller & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2010. "Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 113-155, February.
    4. Danzer, Alexander M. & Grundke, Robert, 2020. "Export price shocks and rural labor markets: The role of labor market distortions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    6. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    7. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2019. "Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3307-3338, September.
    8. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    9. Dan Black & Terra McKinnish & Seth Sanders, 2005. "The Economic Impact Of The Coal Boom And Bust," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 449-476, April.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Amy Finkelstein & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1079-1095, October.
    11. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 208-238, January.
    12. James Feyrer & Erin T. Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1313-1334, April.
    13. Agüero, Jorge M. & Balcázar, Carlos Felipe & Maldonado, Stanislao & Ñopo, Hugo, 2021. "The value of redistribution: Natural resources and the formation of human capital under weak institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. Dan A. Black & Terra G. McKinnish & Seth G. Sanders, 2005. "Tight Labor Markets and the Demand for Education: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(1), pages 3-16, October.
    15. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 9-32, January.
    16. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2018. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 695-731.
    17. Brian C. Cadena & Brian K. Kovak, 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 257-290, January.
    18. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    19. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    20. Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2018. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 678-690, October.
    21. Guy Michaels, 2011. "The Long Term Consequences of Resource‐Based Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 31-57, March.
    22. Dan Welsby & James Price & Steve Pye & Paul Ekins, 2021. "Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7875), pages 230-234, September.
    23. Stanislao Maldonado & Martin Ardanaz, 2023. "Natural resource windfalls and efficiency in local government expenditure: Evidence from Peru," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 28-64, March.
    24. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
    26. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2003. "The waxing and waning of regional economies: the chicken-egg question of jobs versus people," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 76-97, January.
    27. Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2020. "The Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(3), pages 687-725.
    28. Alexander James, 2015. "US State Fiscal Policy and Natural Resources," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 238-257, August.
    29. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    30. Alexander W. Bartik & Janet Currie & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 105-155, October.
    31. Stocker,Marc & Baffes,John & Some,Y. Modeste & Vorisek,Dana Lauren & Wheeler,Collette Mari, 2018. "The 2014-16 oil price collapse in retrospect : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8419, The World Bank.
    32. Riley Wilson, 2022. "Moving to Economic Opportunity: The Migration Response to the Fracking Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(3), pages 918-955.
    33. Marchand, Joseph, 2012. "Local labor market impacts of energy boom-bust-boom in Western Canada," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 165-174.
    34. Santos, Rafael J., 2018. "Blessing and curse. The gold boom and local development in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 337-355.
    35. Gallego, Jorge & Maldonado, Stanislao & Trujillo, Lorena, 2020. "From curse to blessing? institutional reform and resource booms in Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 174-193.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 9-32, January.
    2. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel & Rickardsson, Jonna, 2024. "Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in the Labor Market: Evidence from a Mining Boom and Bust," OSF Preprints tzmf2, Center for Open Science.
    3. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Mosquera, Roberto, 2022. "The long-term effect of resource booms on human capital," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Bennett, Patrick & Ravetti, Chiara & Wong, Po Yin, 2021. "Losing in a boom: Long-term consequences of a local economic shock for female labour market outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Upton, Gregory B. & Yu, Han, 2021. "Labor demand shocks and earnings and employment differentials: Evidence from the U.S. shale oil & gas boom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Cai, Jingjing & De Silva, Dakshina G. & Slechten, Aurelie, 2021. "Effects of oil booms on the local environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Elisa M. Maffioli, 2023. "The local health impacts of natural resource booms," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 462-500, February.
    10. Guettabi, Mouhcine & James, Alexander, 2020. "Who benefits from an oil boom? Evidence from a unique Alaskan data set," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Unel, Bulent & Upton, Gregory B., 2023. "Oil & gas induced economic fluctuations and self-employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Rickman, Dan & Wang, Hongbo, 2020. "What goes up must come down? The recent economic cycles of the four most oil and gas dominated states in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Coal busts and urban recovery: Evidence from China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Ampofo, Akwasi & Cheng, Terence C. & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2022. "Oil extraction and spillover effects into local labour market: Evidence from Ghana," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    15. Diemer, Andreas, 2020. "Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Jason P. Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2019. "Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1039-1064.
    17. Joseph Marchand & Jeremy Weber, 2018. "Local Labor Markets And Natural Resources: A Synthesis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 469-490, April.
    18. Loujaina Abdelwahed & Cole Campbell, 2024. "Unequal ground: oil booms and income inequality in the USA," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(363), pages 880-910, July.
    19. Winters, John V. & Cai, Zhengyu & Maguire, Karen & Sengupta, Shruti, 2019. "Do Workers Benefit from Resource Booms in Their Home State? Evidence from the Fracking Era," GLO Discussion Paper Series 400, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Bonilla Mejía, Leonardo, 2020. "Mining and human capital accumulation: Evidence from the Colombian gold rush," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource bust; Wages; Employment; Oil; Difference-in-differences; Ecuador;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:183:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24002006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.