IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v127y2020ics0305750x19304206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?

Author

Listed:
  • Möllmann, Johannes
  • Buchholz, Matthias
  • Kölle, Wienand
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

Farmers’ vulnerability to adverse weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude due to climate change, is a major impediment to a sufficient credit supply. Smallholder farmers’ access to credit is, among other factors, crucial for productivity and output growth. Index insurance could help lenders to compensate for lacking installment payments in years with severe weather conditions and, thus, is considered to accelerate agricultural lending. Using a unique borrower dataset provided by a Microfinance Institution (MFI) in Madagascar, we analyze whether remotely-sensed vegetation health indices can explain the credit risk of the MFI’s agricultural loan portfolio. Therefore, we utilize sequential logit models and quantile regressions. More specifically, we consider the remotely-sensed Vegetation Condition Index, Temperature Condition Index and the Vegetation Health Index as independent variables at the individual branch and the aggregated bank level. These indices are available globally and can potentially enhance the effectiveness of index insurance by reducing basis risk (imperfect correlation between the index and the underlying exposure), a major drawback of index insurance. Moreover, we consider loan- and socio-demographic variables of the borrowers as additional independent variables. Our results show that the credit risk of the MFI is explained, to a large extent, by the vegetation health indices. Moreover, the results from quantile regressions show that the explanatory power of the vegetation health indices increases with increasing credit risk. Thus, utilizing remotely-sensed vegetation health indices for index insurance designs might be particularly valuable for MFIs to hedge the credit risk of their agricultural loan portfolio. Facing lower default rates, MFIs could reduce interest rates. Remotely-sensed index insurance could therefore enhance access to credit, contributing to sustainable development in the study region.

Suggested Citation

  • Möllmann, Johannes & Buchholz, Matthias & Kölle, Wienand & Musshoff, Oliver, 2020. "Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s0305750x19304206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19304206
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104771?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion & Agali Alhassane & Seydou Traoré, 2014. "Weather Index Drought Insurance: An Ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 527-551, April.
    2. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    3. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey, 2012. "Collateral-free lending with risk-contingent credit for agricultural development: indemnifying loans against pulse crop price risk in India," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 561-574, September.
    4. Benjamin Collier & Ani L. Katchova & Jerry R. Skees, 2011. "Loan portfolio performance and El Niño, an intervention analysis," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 98-119, May.
    5. Nathaniel Jensen & Christopher Barrett, 2017. "Agricultural Index Insurance for Development," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 199-219.
    6. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    7. Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders With contributions by-Name:Ziehmann,Christine, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713, November.
    8. Freya von Negenborn & Ron Weber & Oliver Musshoff, 2018. "Explaining weather-related credit risk with evapotranspiration and precipitation indices," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 78(2), pages 246-261, February.
    9. Farrin, Katie & Miranda, Mario J., 2015. "A heterogeneous agent model of credit-linked index insurance and farm technology adoption," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 199-211.
    10. Veronika Bertram-Huemmer & Kati Kraehnert, 2018. "Does Index Insurance Help Households Recover from Disaster? Evidence from IBLI Mongolia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 145-171.
    11. Joshua D. Woodard & Philip Garcia, 2008. "Basis risk and weather hedging effectiveness," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 68(1), pages 99-117, May.
    12. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    13. Benjamin Collier & Jerry Skees, 2012. "Increasing the resilience of financial intermediaries through portfolio-level insurance against natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 55-72, October.
    14. M. Monirul Qader Mirza, 2003. "Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 233-248, September.
    15. Farrin, Kathleen M. & Miranda, Mario J., 2013. "Premium Benefits? A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Credit-Linked Index Insurance and Farm Technology Adoption," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149666, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Gin, Xavier & Yang, Dean, 2009. "Insurance, credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-11, May.
    17. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Liangzhi You, 2019. "Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(50), pages 5447-5465, October.
    18. Masahiro Shoji, 2010. "Does Contingent Repayment in Microfinance Help the Poor During Natural Disasters?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 191-210.
    19. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    20. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    21. Winkelmann, Rainer, 2006. "Reforming health care: Evidence from quantile regressions for counts," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 131-145, January.
    22. Onyeagocha, Stephen Umamuefula Osuji & Chidebelu, Sunday Angus Nnachebe Dixie & Okorji, Eugene Chukwuemeka, 2012. "Determinants of Repayment of Loan Beneficiaries of Micro Finance Institutions in Southeast States of Nigeria," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 2(3), pages 1-9, September.
    23. Michael T. Norton & Calum Turvey & Daniel Osgood, 2012. "Quantifying spatial basis risk for weather index insurance," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 20-34, December.
    24. Michael Carter & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alexandros Sarris, 2017. "Index Insurance for Developing Country Agriculture: A Reassessment," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 421-438, October.
    25. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    26. Sarah Conradt & Robert Finger & Raushan Bokusheva, 2015. "Tailored to the extremes: Quantile regression for index-based insurance contract design," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(4), pages 537-547, July.
    27. Machado, Jose A.F. & Silva, J. M. C. Santos, 2005. "Quantiles for Counts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1226-1237, December.
    28. Yasuyuki Sawada, 2007. "The impact of natural and manmade disasters on household welfare," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 59-73, December.
    29. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    30. Fischer, Greg & Ghatak, Maitreesh, 2010. "Repayment frequency in microfinance contracts with present-biased borrowers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58184, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Mario J. Miranda & Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, 2010. "Systemic Risk, Index Insurance, and Optimal Management of Agricultural Loan Portfolios in Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 399-406.
    32. Sommarat Chantarat & Andrew G. Mude & Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "Designing Index-Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 205-237, March.
    33. Castillo, Maria Jose & Boucher, Stephen & Carter, Michael, 2016. "Index Insurance: Using Public Data to Benefit Small-Scale Agriculture," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(A), pages 1-22, June.
    34. Mario J. Miranda & Katie Farrin, 2012. "Index Insurance for Developing Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 391-427.
    35. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & De Bock, Ombeline & Gelade, Wouter, 2017. "The Demand for Microinsurance: A Literature Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-156.
    36. Mahul, Olivier & Skees, Jerry, 2007. "Managing agricultural risk at the country level : the case of index-based livestock insurance in Mongolia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4325, The World Bank.
    37. Minten, Bart & Randrianarison, Lalaina & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Global Retail Chains and Poor Farmers: Evidence from Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 1728-1741, November.
    38. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2019. "Ex ante and ex post effects of hybrid index insurance in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    39. Jerry R. Skees & Barry J. Barnett, 2006. "Enhancing microfinance using index-based risk-transfer products," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 235-250, September.
    40. Berg, Gunhild & Schrader, Jan, 2012. "Access to credit, natural disasters, and relationship lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 549-568.
    41. Jerry R. Skees, 2008. "Challenges for use of index‐based weather insurance in lower income countries," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 68(1), pages 197-217, May.
    42. Hansen, James & Hellin, Jon & Rosenstock, Todd & Fisher, Eleanor & Cairns, Jill & Stirling, Clare & Lamanna, Christine & van Etten, Jacob & Rose, Alison & Campbell, Bruce, 2019. "Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 28-46.
    43. Michael Carter & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alexandros Sarris, 2017. "Index Insurance for Developing Country Agriculture: A Reassessment," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 421-438, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Wei & Ju, Ming & Yang, Tongyang, 2023. "Severe weather and peer-to-peer farmers’ loan default predictions: Evidence from machine learning analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    2. Noluthando Mngadi & Hossana Twinomurinzi, 2023. "Quantifying Causality between Climate Change and Credit Risk: A Bibliometric Study and Research Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, June.
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:335439 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mohamed, Toka S. & Elgammal, Mohammed M., 2023. "Credit risk in Islamic microfinance institutions: The role of women, groups, and rural borrowers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Yating Peng & Bo Liu & Mengliang Zhou, 2022. "Sustainable Livelihoods in Rural Areas under the Shock of Climate Change: Evidence from China Labor-Force Dynamic Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Valentina Hartarska & Jingfang Zhang & Denis A. Nadolnyak, 2023. "Scope economies from rural and urban microfinance services," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1138-1167, April.
    7. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yan, Cheng & Kong, Xiaoran, 2024. "The impact of climate change on credit cycles: Evidence from China's bond market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    8. Wonga Masiza & Johannes George Chirima & Hamisai Hamandawana & Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba & Hezekiel Bheki Magagula, 2021. "Linking Agricultural Index Insurance with Factors That Influence Maize Yield in Rain-Fed Smallholder Farming Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, May.
    9. Anghileri, Daniela & Bozzini, Veronica & Molnar, Peter & Jamali, Andrew A.J. & Sheffield, Justin, 2022. "Comparison of hydrological and vegetation remote sensing datasets as proxies for rainfed maize yield in Malawi," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    2. Mogge, Lukas, 2023. "A District-Level Analysis of the Effect of Risk Exposure on the Demand for Index Insurance in Mongolia," Ruhr Economic Papers 1018, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Stoeffler, Quentin & Opuz, Gülce, 2022. "Price, information and product quality: Explaining index insurance demand in Burkina Faso," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Lichtenberg, Erik & Iglesias, Eva, 2022. "Index insurance and basis risk: A reconsideration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B., 2018. "How basis risk and spatiotemporal adverse selection influence demand for index insurance: Evidence from northern Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 172-198.
    6. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. Benjamin L. Collier, 2020. "Strengthening Local Credit Markets Through Lender‐Level Index Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 319-349, June.
    9. Boyd, Chris M. & Bellemare, Marc F., 2022. "Why not insure prices? Experimental evidence from Peru," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 580-631.
    10. Shin, Soye & Magnan, Nicholas & Mullally, Conner & Janzen, Sarah, 2022. "Demand for Weather Index Insurance among Smallholder Farmers under Prospect Theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 82-104.
    11. Veronika Bertram-Huemmer & Kati Kraehnert, 2018. "Does Index Insurance Help Households Recover from Disaster? Evidence from IBLI Mongolia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 145-171.
    12. Elena Serfilippi & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2018. "Insurance Contracts when Individuals “Greatly Value” Certainty: Results from a Field Experiment in Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 25026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. King, Michael & Singh, Anuj Pratap, 2020. "Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insurance: Evidence from Vietnam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Sarah A. Janzen & Michael R. Carter & Munenobu Ikegami, 2021. "Can insurance alter poverty dynamics and reduce the cost of social protection in developing countries?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 293-324, June.
    15. Michael R. Carter, 2022. "Can digitally‐enabled financial instruments secure an inclusive agricultural transformation?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 953-967, November.
    16. Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Ana Marr, 2021. "Heterogeneous Demand and Supply for an Insurance‐linked Credit Product in Kenya: A Stated Choice Experiment Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 244-267, February.
    17. Sommarat Chantarat, 2015. "Index-based Risk Financing and Development of Natural Disaster Insurance Programs in Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 10, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Index-Based Livestock Insurance Demand in Southern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-340.
    19. Anuj Singh & Michael King, 2018. "Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insurance: Evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Mishra, K., 2018. "You are Approved! Insured Loans Improve Credit Access and Technology Adoption of Ghanaian Farmers," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277089, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s0305750x19304206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.