IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v206y2024ics0040162524002865.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of climate change on credit cycles: Evidence from China's bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Ho, Kung-Cheng
  • Yan, Cheng
  • Kong, Xiaoran

Abstract

This study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on credit spreads using a sample of A-share listed companies that issued corporate bonds between 2014 and 2020. The results indicate that the greater the climate change risk a company faces, the greater its bonds' credit spread; the secondary bond market perceives the potential harm caused by climate change. This conclusion remains valid after endogeneity treatment and robustness tests. Furthermore, mechanism testing reveals that climate change affects bond credit spreads by increasing the probability of corporate bankruptcy, profit volatility, and negative investor sentiment. The heterogeneity test considers three aspects, namely, individual enterprises' internal characteristics, creditor protection measures, and regional green finance levels. Finally, this study introduces the impact of economic cycles to test the conclusions at the macro level and closely follow the topic. Thus, we provide new evidence and perspectives for exploring the impact of climate risk on the bond market and important policy implications for green finance and the healthy development of China's bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yan, Cheng & Kong, Xiaoran, 2024. "The impact of climate change on credit cycles: Evidence from China's bond market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:206:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524002865
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524002865
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pfeiffer, Alexander & Hepburn, Cameron & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Caldecott, Ben, 2018. "Committed Emissions from Existing and Planned Power Plants and Asset Stranding Required to Meet the Paris Agreement," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8886, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Yong Xu & Ling Yuan & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Magdalena Radulescu & Xin Zhao & Sabrine Mallek, 2023. "Making technological innovation greener: Does firm digital transformation work?," Post-Print hal-04296366, HAL.
    3. Fang, Xubing & Liu, Maotao, 2024. "How does the digital transformation drive digital technology innovation of enterprises? Evidence from enterprise's digital patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Johannes Stroebel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2021. "What Do You Think about Climate Finance?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9350, CESifo.
    5. Xu, Yong & Yuan, Ling & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Radulescu, Magdalena & Mallek, Sabrine & Zhao, Xin, 2023. "Making technological innovation greener: Does firm digital transformation work?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Fu, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2023. "The impact of extreme weather events on green innovation: Which ones bring to the most harm?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Rammer, Christian & Es-Sadki, Nordine, 2023. "Using big data for generating firm-level innovation indicators - a literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    9. Giray Gozgor & Priya Ranjan, 2017. "Globalisation, inequality and redistribution: Theory and evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2704-2751, December.
    10. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Shen, Xixi & Yan, Cheng & Hu, Xiang, 2023. "Influence of green innovation on disclosure quality: Mediating role of media attention," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    11. Andrea Moro & Daniela Maresch & Annalisa Ferrando, 2018. "Creditor protection, judicial enforcement and credit access," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 250-281, February.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    13. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio, 2017. "GHG Emissions Control and Monetary Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 823-851, August.
    14. Vera Palea & Federico Drogo, 2020. "Carbon emissions and the cost of debt in the eurozone: The role of public policies, climate‐related disclosure and corporate governance," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 2953-2972, December.
    15. Chen, Hanwen & Yang, Daoguang & Zhang, Joseph H. & Zhou, Haiyan, 2020. "Internal controls, risk management, and cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Ye, Liping, 2022. "The effect of climate news risk on uncertainties," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    17. Nguyen, Justin Hung & Phan, Hieu V., 2020. "Carbon risk and corporate capital structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Scott D. Dyreng & Stephen A. Hillegeist & Fernando Penalva, 2022. "Earnings Management to Avoid Debt Covenant Violations and Future Performance," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 311-343, March.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Poufinas, Thomas & Antonopoulos, Alexandros, 2022. "ESG scores and cost of debt," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Möllmann, Johannes & Buchholz, Matthias & Kölle, Wienand & Musshoff, Oliver, 2020. "Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    21. Mara Faccio & Maria-Teresa Marchica & Roberto Mura, 2011. "Large Shareholder Diversification and Corporate Risk-Taking," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3601-3641.
    22. Yan, Zheming & Sun, Zao & Shi, Rui & Zhao, Minjuan, 2023. "Smart city and green development: Empirical evidence from the perspective of green technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    23. Mark L. Defond & Jieying Zhang, 2014. "The Timeliness of the Bond Market Reaction to Bad Earnings News," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 911-936, September.
    24. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    25. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    26. Juhyun Jung & Kathleen Herbohn & Peter Clarkson, 2018. "Carbon Risk, Carbon Risk Awareness and the Cost of Debt Financing," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 150(4), pages 1151-1171, July.
    27. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    28. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    29. Li, Houjian & Tang, Mengqian & Cao, Andi & Guo, Lili, 2024. "How to reduce firm pollution discharges: Does political leaders' gender matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    30. Fang, Ming & Njangang, Henri & Padhan, Hemachandra & Simo, Colette & Yan, Cheng, 2023. "Social media and energy justice: A global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    31. Wen, Huwei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Fengxiu, 2021. "Green credit policy, credit allocation efficiency and upgrade of energy-intensive enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    32. Mary J. Benner & Joel Waldfogel, 2023. "Changing the channel: Digitization and the rise of “middle tail” strategies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 264-287, January.
    33. Jemma Green & Peter Newman, 2017. "Disruptive innovation, stranded assets and forecasting: the rise and rise of renewable energy," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 169-187, April.
    34. Yang, Yi & Qin, Huan, 2024. "The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    35. Razzaq, Asif & Yang, Xiaodong, 2023. "Digital finance and green growth in China: Appraising inclusive digital finance using web crawler technology and big data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    36. Matthew T. Billett & Tao‐Hsien Dolly King & David C. Mauer, 2007. "Growth Opportunities and the Choice of Leverage, Debt Maturity, and Covenants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 697-730, April.
    37. Ferrari, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 299-324, March.
    38. Chen, Jun & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, 2014. "Corporate hedging and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 221-245.
    39. James R. Brown & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ivan T. Ivanov, 2021. "Weathering Cash Flow Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1731-1772, August.
    40. Zhang, Wei & Qin, Chu & Zhang, Wenyao, 2023. "Top management team characteristics, technological innovation and firm's greenwashing: Evidence from China's heavy-polluting industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    41. Rainville, Megan & Unlu, Emre & Wu, Juan Julie, 2022. "How do stronger creditor rights impact corporate acquisition activity and quality?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    42. Vining, Aidan R & Boardman, Anthony E, 1992. "Ownership versus Competition: Efficiency in Public Enterprise," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 205-239, March.
    43. Iordanis M. Eleftheriadis & Evgenia G. Anagnostopoulou, 2015. "Relationship between Corporate Climate Change Disclosures and Firm Factors," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(8), pages 780-789, December.
    44. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    45. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    46. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Climate Change and the Financial System," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-320, October.
    47. Alam, Ashraful & Du, Anna Min & Rahman, Mahfuzur & Yazdifar, Hassan & Abbasi, Kaleemullah, 2022. "SMEs respond to climate change: Evidence from developing countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    48. Chu, Yongqiang, 2017. "Shareholder litigation, shareholder–creditor conflict, and the cost of bank loans," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 318-332.
    49. Lang, Qiaoqi & Ma, Feng & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The interaction of climate risk and bank liquidity: An emerging market perspective for transitions to low carbon energy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    50. Chen, Di & Hu, Haiqing & Wang, Ning & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2024. "The impact of green finance on transformation to green energy: Evidence from industrial enterprises in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    51. Henry He Huang & Joseph Kerstein & Chong Wang & Feng (Harry) Wu, 2022. "Firm climate risk, risk management, and bank loan financing," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(13), pages 2849-2880, December.
    52. Ren, Xiaohang & Zhang, Xiao & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    53. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2022. "Does corporate social responsibility help mitigate firm-level climate change risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    54. Sun, Yunpeng & Jia, Ruoya & Razzaq, Asif & Bao, Qun, 2024. "Social network platforms and climate change in China: Evidence from TikTok," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    55. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    56. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiuyue Zhang & Yili Lin & Yu Cao, 2024. "From Financialization to Sustainability: The Impact of Climate Risks on Shadow Banking Activities in Non-Financial Firms in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-20, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Po-Hsiang & Lin, Meng-Chieh, 2022. "Does green bond issuance have an impact on climate risk concerns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien, 2023. "Green development, climate risks, and cash flow: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Horobet, Alexandra & Boubaker, Sabri, 2024. "Effects of climate change and technological capex on credit risk cycles in the European Union," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien & Xu, Zhi-Ting, 2022. "Climate risk and bank liquidity creation: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Ongsakul, Viput & Papangkorn, Suwongrat & Jiraporn, Pornsit, 2023. "Estimating the effect of climate change exposure on firm value using climate policy uncertainty: A text-based approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    7. Gutiérrez-López, Cristina & Castro, Paula & Tascón, María T., 2022. "How can firms' transition to a low-carbon economy affect the distance to default?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    9. Alexander Blasberg & Rüdiger Kiesel & Luca Taschini, 2022. "Carbon Default Swap - Disentangling the Exposure to Carbon Risk through CDS," CESifo Working Paper Series 10016, CESifo.
    10. Zhu, Bo & Zhao, Yue, 2022. "Carbon risk and the cost of bank loans: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Wang, He-tong & Qi, Shao-zhou & Li, Kai, 2023. "Impact of risk-taking on enterprise value under extreme temperature: From the perspectives of external and internal governance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Agoraki, Konstantina K. & Giaka, Maria & Konstantios, Dimitrios & Negkakis, Ioannis, 2024. "The relationship between firm-level climate change exposure, financial integration, cost of capital and investment efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Lee Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds," Staff Reports 1014, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Karim, Sitara & Palma, Alessia, 2024. "Carbon emissions and liquidity management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    16. Liu, Yulin & Wang, Junbo & Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Chunchi, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A creative destruction perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. He, Feng & Duan, Lin & Cao, Yi & Wen, Shuyang, 2024. "Green credit policy and corporate climate risk exposure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Siamak Javadi & Abdullah‐Al Masum & Mohsen Aram & Ramesh P. Rao, 2023. "Climate change and corporate cash holdings: Global evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 253-295, June.
    20. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert Goldstein, 2023. "Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4331-4352, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:206:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524002865. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.