IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v160y2025icp1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decarbonization costs for the Swedish heavy-duty road fleet: Circular economy insights on electric truck batteries

Author

Listed:
  • Parviziomran, Elmira
  • Bergqvist, Rickard

Abstract

This study analyzes decarbonization costs for the Swedish heavy-duty road fleet under five scenarios, one taken from the EUCalc model as a reference scenario and four others driven by interviews: a high-speed transition with 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) across all distances; a high-speed transition with BEVs taking 100% of the market in local and regional distances and 40% in long distances, with the remaining 60% being fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) by 2050; a low-speed transition with BEVs market share increasing by 15% every five years, starting at 10% from 2025 for local and 2030 for regional and long distances; and a low-speed transition similar to the previous scenario, but with 60% of the electrified long-distance fleet to be FCVs. The system's expenses are then calculated through numerical modeling. The study links research on the costs of sustainability transition to a circular economy by analyzing the effect of charging range and temperature on battery degradation for BEVs and their impact on the batteries' valorization. In full electrification scenarios, despite lower operating expenses, the system incurs a higher total cost because of higher investment expenses. Charging–discharging pattern and temperature impact the remaining capacity, and therefore salvage value, of end-of-life batteries.

Suggested Citation

  • Parviziomran, Elmira & Bergqvist, Rickard, 2025. "Decarbonization costs for the Swedish heavy-duty road fleet: Circular economy insights on electric truck batteries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:160:y:2025:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.10.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24003226
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.10.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Dipti & Dhar, Subash, 2022. "Exploring the freight transportation transitions for mitigation and development pathways of India," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 156-175.
    2. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
    4. Penny Atkins & Gareth Milton & Andrew Atkins & Robert Morgan, 2021. "A Local Ecosystem Assessment of the Potential for Net Negative Heavy-Duty Truck Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Biomethane Upcycling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Klaus Skytte & Amalia Pizarro & Kenneth B. Karlsson, 2017. "Use of electric vehicles or hydrogen in the Danish transport sector in 2050?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), January.
    6. Gunkel, Philipp Andreas & Bergaentzlé, Claire & Græsted Jensen, Ida & Scheller, Fabian, 2020. "From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    7. Yan, Shiyu & de Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2021. "Climate policies for freight transport: Energy and emission projections through 2050," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-23.
    8. Tharsis Teoh & Oliver Kunze & Chee-Chong Teo & Yiik Diew Wong, 2018. "Decarbonisation of Urban Freight Transport Using Electric Vehicles and Opportunity Charging," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Abdullah-Al-Nahid, Syed & Jamal, Taskin & Aziz, Tareq & Bhuiyan, Ashraf Hossain & Khan, Tafsir Ahmed, 2023. "Additive linear modelling and genetic algorithm based electric vehicle outlook and policy formulation for decarbonizing the future transport sector of Bangladesh," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 21-46.
    10. Philipp Andreas Gunkel & Claire Bergaentzl'e & Ida Gr{ae}sted Jensen & Fabian Scheller, 2020. "From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development," Papers 2011.05830, arXiv.org.
    11. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    12. Delucchi, Mark & Lipman, Timothy, 2001. "An Analysis of the Retail and Lifecycle Cost of Battery-Powered Electric Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt50q9060k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kley, Fabian & Lerch, Christian & Dallinger, David, 2011. "New business models for electric cars--A holistic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3392-3403, June.
    2. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Jåstad, Eirik Ogner & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2023. "Modelling emission and land-use impacts of altered bioenergy use in the future energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. Bergaentzle, Claire & Gunkel, Philipp Andreas, 2022. "Cross-sector flexibility, storage investment and the integration of renewables: Capturing the impacts of grid tariffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Jerez Monsalves, Juan & Bergaentzlé, Claire & Keles, Dogan, 2023. "Impacts of flexible-cooling and waste-heat recovery from data centres on energy systems: A Danish case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    6. Samuel Pelletier & Ola Jabali & Gilbert Laporte, 2016. "50th Anniversary Invited Article—Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles: Review and Research Perspectives," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 3-22, February.
    7. Gunkel, Philipp Andreas & Kachirayil, Febin & Bergaentzlé, Claire-Marie & McKenna, Russell & Keles, Dogan & Jacobsen, Henrik Klinge, 2023. "Uniform taxation of electricity: incentives for flexibility and cost redistribution among household categories," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    8. Jåstad, Eirik Ogner & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2023. "Offshore wind power market values in the North Sea – A probabilistic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    9. Geir H. Bjertnæs, 2013. "Biofuel mandate versus favourable taxation of electric cars. The case of Norway," Discussion Papers 745, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    10. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.
    11. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. Daryabari, Mohamad K. & Keypour, Reza & Golmohamadi, Hessam, 2020. "Stochastic energy management of responsive plug-in electric vehicles characterizing parking lot aggregators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    13. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    14. Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai, 2016. "System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 335-350, December.
    15. Alexandra Märtz & Uwe Langenmayr & Sabrina Ried & Katrin Seddig & Patrick Jochem, 2022. "Charging Behavior of Electric Vehicles: Temporal Clustering Based on Real-World Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-26, September.
    16. Valkering, Pieter & Moglianesi, Andrea & Godon, Louis & Duerinck, Jan & Huber, Dominik & Costa, Daniele, 2023. "Representing decentralized generation and local energy use flexibility in an energy system optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    17. Newbery, David & Strbac, Goran, 2016. "What is needed for battery electric vehicles to become socially cost competitive?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-11.
    18. Sevdari, Kristian & Calearo, Lisa & Andersen, Peter Bach & Marinelli, Mattia, 2022. "Ancillary services and electric vehicles: An overview from charging clusters and chargers technology perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    20. Anderson, Osten & Yu, Nanpeng & Hong, Wanshi & Wang, Bin, 2025. "Impact of flexible and bidirectional charging in medium- and heavy-duty trucks on California’s decarbonization pathway," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:160:y:2025:i:c:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.