IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envsyd/v36y2016i4d10.1007_s10669-016-9612-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Azmi

    (Osaka University)

  • Akihiro Tokai

    (Osaka University)

Abstract

Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai, 2016. "System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 335-350, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:36:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-016-9612-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-016-9612-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-016-9612-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10669-016-9612-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
    2. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969.
    3. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
    4. Gerard de Jong & Hugh Gunn, 2001. "Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(2), pages 137-160, May.
    5. Hosseini, Seyed Ehsan & Wahid, Mazlan Abdul & Aghili, Nasim, 2013. "The scenario of greenhouse gases reduction in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 400-409.
    6. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2009. "Why have CO2 emissions increased in the transport sector in Asia ? underlying factors and policy options," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5098, The World Bank.
    7. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2009. "Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4523-4539, November.
    8. Ong, H.C. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Masjuki, H.H., 2011. "A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3516-3522.
    9. Naoya Kojima & Akihiro Tokai & Toyohiko Nakakubo & Yusuke Nagata, 2016. "Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 229-238, September.
    10. Siti Indati Mustapa & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2015. "Investigating Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions in Malaysian Road Transport Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1073-1083.
    11. Ang, James B., 2008. "Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-278.
    12. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    13. Mark R. Jacobsen & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2013. "Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy," NBER Working Papers 19055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lv, J. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Ding, Y.K. & Li, X. & Li, Y., 2022. "Planning energy economy and eco-environment nexus system under uncertainty: A copula-based stochastic multi-level programming method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    2. Zachary A. Collier & James H. Lambert & Igor Linkov, 2016. "Data analysis and modeling to support policy decisions in environmental, transportation, and energy systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 329-330, December.
    3. Thirupathi Rao & Siti Indati Mustapa, 2020. "A Review of Climate Economic Models in Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Asif Raihan & Rawshan Ara Begum & Mohd Nizam Mohd Said & Joy Jacqueline Pereira, 2022. "Relationship between economic growth, renewable energy use, technological innovation, and carbon emission toward achieving Malaysia’s Paris agreement," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 586-607, December.
    5. Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai, 2017. "Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 451-464, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mustapa, Siti Indati & Bekhet, Hussain Ali, 2016. "Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 171-183.
    2. Siti Indati Mustapa & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2015. "Investigating Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions in Malaysian Road Transport Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1073-1083.
    3. Liu, Yang & Wang, Yu & Huo, Hong, 2013. "Temporal and spatial variations in on-road energy use and CO2 emissions in China, 1978–2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 544-550.
    4. Reham Alhindawi & Yousef Abu Nahleh & Arun Kumar & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2020. "Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Road Transport Sector Based on Multivariate Regression and the Double Exponential Smoothing Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, November.
    5. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Marrero, Ángel S., 2019. "Analyzing CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe: A dynamic panel data approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1271-1281.
    6. Hyungwoo Lim & Jaehyeok Kim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Population Age Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transportation: A Panel Cointegration Analysis of 21 OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Marrero, Ángel S. & Marrero, Gustavo A. & González, Rosa Marina & Rodríguez-López, Jesús, 2021. "Convergence in road transport CO2 emissions in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2019. "Time frequency relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation in the United States: Evidence from transportation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 706-720.
    9. Andrés, Lidia & Padilla, Emilio, 2018. "Driving factors of GHG emissions in the EU transport activity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 60-74.
    10. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti & Munawar Javed Ahmad, 2021. "Examining the Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions from Road Transportation in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 152-159.
    11. Muhammad Shafique & Anam Azam & Muhammad Rafiq & Xiaowei Luo, 2020. "Evaluating the Relationship between Freight Transport, Economic Prosperity, Urbanization, and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Reham Alhindawi & Yousef Abu Nahleh & Arun Kumar & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2019. "Application of a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Technique for Projection of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    14. Solaymani, Saeed & Kardooni, Roozbeh & Yusoff, Sumiani Binti & Kari, Fatimah, 2015. "The impacts of climate change policies on the transportation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 719-728.
    15. Hosseini, Seyed Ehsan & Wahid, Mazlan Abdul, 2014. "Development of biogas combustion in combined heat and power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 868-875.
    16. Masato Abe, 2011. "Achieving a sustainable automotive sector in Asia and the Pacific: Challenges and opportunities for the reduction of vehicle CO2 emissions," Working Papers 10811, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    17. Sheilla Nyasha & Yvonne Gwenhure & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Ethiopia: A dynamic causal linkage," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(8), pages 1393-1412, December.
    18. Robaina, Margarita & Neves, Ana, 2021. "Complete decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions intensity in the transport sector in Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:36:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-016-9612-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.