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Making the case for developing a silent aircraft

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  • Morimoto, Risako
  • Hope, Chris

Abstract

There is increasing concern about aircraft noise as a result of the rising demand for air transport. According to the US National Science and Technology Council, the environmental impacts of aircraft, including serious noise problems, are likely to limit air transportation growth in the 21st century. This paper presents a simple decision making model that examines whether it is worth trying to developing a silent aircraft in order to solve the current aircraft noise problems. The model is designed to capture a first approximation of all aspects of the decision, and the findings give a broad picture of the current state of silent aircraft development. The model is simple, but probabilistic and comprehensive enough to make a first estimate of the business case of this long-term project with huge uncertainty. The predicted mean cumulative net present value of the decision to develop a silent aircraft is US$13 billion, with 5th percentile, and 95th percentile cumulative net present values of US$-51, and 139 billion, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Morimoto, Risako & Hope, Chris, 2005. "Making the case for developing a silent aircraft," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-174, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:165-174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick Hanley, 1992. "Are there environmental limits to cost benefit analysis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 33-59, January.
    2. Bernard M.S. van Praag & B.E. Baarsma, 2000. "The Shadow Price of Aircraft Noise Nuisance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-004/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Morrison, Steven A & Winston, Clifford & Watson, Tara, 1999. "Fundamental Flaws of Social Regulation: The Case of Airplane Noise," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 723-743, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Castagne, Sylvie & Curran, Richard & Collopy, Paul, 2009. "Implementation of value-driven optimisation for the design of aircraft fuselage panels," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 381-388, February.
    2. Morimoto, Risako, 2010. "Estimating the benefits of effectively and proactively maintaining infrastructure with the innovative Smart Infrastructure sensor system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 247-257, December.

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