IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v118y2022icp152-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems

Author

Listed:
  • Navarro-Ligero, Miguel L.
  • Valenzuela-Montes, Luis Miguel

Abstract

The adaptation of transport concepts to changing urban conditions has rendered continuous transformation in the contexts, rationalities and type of decisions involved in urban transport planning. Foresight approaches in future studies offer flexible tools to capture transformations at such different levels. In this work, we explore pathways for the integration of future-scenario methods in transport planning, using the implementation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system in Granada (Spain) as a case in point. We applied the concept of “scenario archetype” to review both process-oriented and product-oriented elements in existing planning documents, assisted by a survey to local planning actors about the future of Granada's LRT. As a result, we suggest two main scenario archetypes, robust and flexible, in describing potential relationships between public transport projects and planning processes. Those archetypes entail different planning and communication environments, and therefore, integration pathways for using scenarios in envisioning the future of urban transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Navarro-Ligero, Miguel L. & Valenzuela-Montes, Luis Miguel, 2022. "Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 152-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:118:y:2022:i:c:p:152-164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22000415
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boschetti, Fabio & Price, Jennifer & Walker, Iain, 2016. "Myths of the future and scenario archetypes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 76-85.
    2. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    3. Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2011. "Transitions to low carbon transport futures: strategic conversations from London and Delhi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1553-1562.
    4. Shabbir, Rabia & Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed, 2010. "Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2323-2332.
    5. Beukers, Els & Bertolini, Luca & Te Brömmelstroet, Marco, 2014. "Using cost benefit analysis as a learning process: identifying interventions for improving communication and trust," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 61-72.
    6. Peter Loukopoulos & Roland W Scholz, 2004. "Sustainable Future Urban Mobility: Using ‘Area Development Negotiations’ for Scenario Assessment and Participatory Strategic Planning," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(12), pages 2203-2226, December.
    7. Willem Salet & Luca Bertolini & Mendel Giezen, 2013. "Complexity and Uncertainty: Problem or Asset in Decision Making of Mega Infrastructure Projects?," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1984-2000, November.
    8. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    9. Felix Creutzig, 2016. "Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 341-360, May.
    10. Jacobson, Justin & Forsyth, Ann, 2008. "Seven American TODs: Good Practices for Urban Design in Transit-Oriented Development Projects," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 1(2), pages 51-88.
    11. De Bruijn, Hans & Veeneman, Wijnand, 2009. "Decision-making for light rail," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 349-359, May.
    12. Milan Janic, 2014. "Estimating the long-term effects of different passenger car technologies on energy/fuel consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases in Europe," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 409-429, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2017. "Dynamic participation processes for policy packaging in transport backcasting studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-30.
    2. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    3. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Biyue Wang & Martin de Jong & Ellen van Bueren & Aksel Ersoy & Yanchun Meng, 2023. "Transit-Oriented Development in China: A Comparative Content Analysis of the Spatial Plans of High-Speed Railway Station Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Hickman, Robin & Hall, Peter & Banister, David, 2013. "Planning more for sustainable mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-219.
    6. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco & Cascajo, Rocío & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López, Cristina & Gómez-Delgado, Montserrat, 2021. "Participatory visioning for building disruptive future scenarios for transport and land use planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Varvara Nikulina & David Simon & Henrik Ny & Henrikke Baumann, 2019. "Context-Adapted Urban Planning for Rapid Transitioning of Personal Mobility towards Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, February.
    8. Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Jimenez-Espada, Montaña, 2021. "Experimenting with scenario-building narratives to integrate land use and transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-70.
    9. Jemni, Mohamed Ali & Kantchev, Gueorgui & Abid, Mohamed Salah, 2011. "Influence of intake manifold design on in-cylinder flow and engine performances in a bus diesel engine converted to LPG gas fuelled, using CFD analyses and experimental investigations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2701-2715.
    10. Junjie Wang & Yuan Li & Yi Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Road Traffic in Chengdu City Based on a LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    11. Santos, Alberto & Maia, Pedro & Jacob, Rodrigo & Wei, Huang & Callegari, Camila & Oliveira Fiorini, Ana Carolina & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre, 2024. "Road conditions and driving patterns on fuel usage: Lessons from an emerging economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    12. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
    13. Jinhyun Jun, 2023. "Towards Sustainable Urban Riverfront Redevelopment: Adaptability as a Design Strategy for the Hangang Riverfront in Seoul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    14. David Levinson & Arthur Huang, 2012. "A Positive Theory of Network Connectivity," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(2), pages 308-325, April.
    15. Roland W. Scholz, 2018. "Ways and modes of utilizing Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism: new perspectives for decision and sustainability research?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 99-117, March.
    16. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    17. Karst Geurs & Cathy Macharis, 2019. "The future of European communication and transportation research: a research agenda," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 6, pages 1-21.
    18. Alexander Walter & Roland Scholz, 2007. "Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 195-212, March.
    19. Solaymani, Saeed, 2019. "CO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 989-1001.
    20. Abdi, Mohammad Hamed, 2021. "What the newcomers to transit-oriented development are confronted with? Evidence from Iranian policy and planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:118:y:2022:i:c:p:152-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.