IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v110y2021icp487-498.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A robust analysis of the impacts of the stay-at-home policy on taxi and Citi Bike usage: A case study of Manhattan

Author

Listed:
  • Lei, Yiyuan
  • Ozbay, Kaan

Abstract

On March 22, 2020, the State of New York issued a “stay-at-home” policy, wherein all non-essential businesses were on pause until June 8, 2020. The bike-sharing system (BSS) and yellow taxi system (YTS) in Manhattan were substantially affected. This sudden drop in demand can impact not only short and long-term mobility but also the sustainability of transport network. Given that few empirical studies are focusing on the impacts of the “stay-at-home” policy on the BSS and YTS, this further substantiates the importance of analyzing how the policy affects the overall transportation system in New York City (NYC). This paper aims to fill this gap by quantifying the impacts of the “stay-at-home” policy on the two aforementioned transportation systems. Specifically, the following three research gaps are summarized in this study: I) The hidden biases in current “stay-at-home” policy estimation methods were not properly addressed; II) The policy impacts on BSS and YTS during different periods of the effective day were unclear; III) The sensitivity of uncontrolled confounders in long-term policy impact estimations was poorly discussed. We addressed these important research gaps by introducing robust statistical approaches like regression discontinuity design (RDD) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods, which can overcome methodological challenges such as counterfactual restoration, spatiotemporal heterogeneities, and unmeasured confounders. The BSS and YTS were studied at the aggregated neighborhood levels. Results demonstrate that the impacts on BSS have higher variations than YTS usage. The monthly average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) for BSS ranged from −72% to −28% respectively in March and June, while YTS ranged from −96% to −94%. Evidence suggests that demand for BSS surged on weekends in May and June. Understanding the impact of this short-term yet significant policy change on travel behavior will help optimize supply and demand management strategies, thereby improving the long-term sustainability should similar situations arise in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei, Yiyuan & Ozbay, Kaan, 2021. "A robust analysis of the impacts of the stay-at-home policy on taxi and Citi Bike usage: A case study of Manhattan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 487-498.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:110:y:2021:i:c:p:487-498
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.07.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21002043
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.07.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Zou, Bo & Hansen, Mark, 2018. "Assessing the impacts of state-supported rail services on local population and employment: A California case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-121.
    2. Barnes, Stephen R. & Beland, Louis-Philippe & Huh, Jason & Kim, Dongwoo, 2020. "The Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Mobility and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Louisiana," GLO Discussion Paper Series 616, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Yang, Hai & Wong, S. C. & Wong, K. I., 2002. "Demand-supply equilibrium of taxi services in a network under competition and regulation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 799-819, November.
    4. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    5. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Frank, Lawrence D., 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-85.
    6. Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Propensity score matching," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2001 12, Stata Users Group, revised 23 Aug 2001.
    7. Camille Kamga & M. Anil Yazici & Abhishek Singhal, 2015. "Analysis of taxi demand and supply in New York City: implications of recent taxi regulations," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 601-625, August.
    8. Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza & Anowar, Sabreena & Miller, Eric J. & Eluru, Naveen, 2017. "Hail a cab or ride a bike? A travel time comparison of taxi and bicycle-sharing systems in New York City," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 11-21.
    9. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    10. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    11. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Trong-Anh Trinh, 2022. "The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 1917-1933, October.
    12. Junyi Zhang, 2021. "People’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic during its early stages and factors affecting those responses," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Michael L. Anderson, 2014. "Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2763-2796, September.
    14. Gérard Biau & Erwan Scornet, 2016. "A random forest guided tour," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 197-227, June.
    15. Kun Xie & Kaan Ozbay & Abdullah Kurkcu & Hong Yang, 2017. "Analysis of Traffic Crashes Involving Pedestrians Using Big Data: Investigation of Contributing Factors and Identification of Hotspots," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1459-1476, August.
    16. Adrienne, Nena & Budd, Lucy & Ison, Stephen, 2020. "Grounded aircraft: An airfield operations perspective of the challenges of resuming flights post COVID," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Bian, Zilin & Zuo, Fan & Gao, Jingqin & Chen, Yanyan & Pavuluri Venkata, Sai Sarath Chandra & Duran Bernardes, Suzana & Ozbay, Kaan & Ban, Xuegang (Jeff) & Wang, Jingxing, 2021. "Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 269-283.
    18. Ding, Hongliang & Sze, N.N. & Li, Haojie & Guo, Yanyong, 2021. "Affected area and residual period of London Congestion Charging scheme on road safety," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-128.
    19. Andreas Nikiforiadis & Georgia Ayfantopoulou & Afroditi Stamelou, 2020. "Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Bike-Sharing Usage: The Case of Thessaloniki, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-12, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yixiao Liu & Wenshan Liu & Rui Zhao & Lixin Tian, 2023. "Can Docked Bike-Sharing Systems Reach Their Dual Sustainability in Terms of Environmental Benefits and Financial Operations? A Comparative Study from Nanjing, 2017 and 2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-39, December.
    2. Goh, Hyewon & Choi, Gahyun & Song, Yena, 2023. "How the COVID-19 pandemic changed travel behaviour? A case study on public bikes in Seoul," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Song, Jie & Zhang, Liye & Qin, Zheng & Ramli, Muhamad Azfar, 2022. "Spatiotemporal evolving patterns of bike-share mobility networks and their associations with land-use conditions before and after the COVID-19 outbreak," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    4. Lucia Rotaris & Mario Intini & Alessandro Gardelli, 2022. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Bike-Sharing: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Wence, 2023. "Effects of a bike sharing system and COVID-19 on low-carbon traffic modal shift and emission reduction," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 42-64.
    6. Xiao Lin & Zhengfeng Huang & Yun Ye & Jingxin Dong & Hongxiang Feng & Pengjun Zheng, 2023. "Effects of Aging on Taxi Service Performance: A Comparative Study Based on Different Age Groups," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "Does the COVID-19 lockdown improve global air quality? New cross-national evidence on its unintended consequences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2020. "The impact of health insurance on stockholding: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    4. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael P. Ribas, 2023. "Unveiling the Price of Obscenity: Evidence From Closing Prostitution Windows in Amsterdam," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 677-705, June.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    6. Matteo Picchio & Jan C. van Ours, 2020. "Mental Health Effects of Retirement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 419-452, September.
    7. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    8. Park, Albert & Shi, Xinzheng & Hsieh, Chang-tai & An, Xuehui, 2015. "Magnet high schools and academic performance in China: A regression discontinuity design," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 825-843.
    9. Decio Coviello & Andrea Guglielmo & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2015. "The Effect of Discretion on Procurement Performance," CEIS Research Paper 361, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Nov 2015.
    10. Davis, Lucas W., 2021. "Estimating the price elasticity of demand for subways: Evidence from Mexico," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Steven F. Koch & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2016. "Healthcare facility choice and user fee abolition: regression discontinuity in a multinomial choice setting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 927-950, October.
    12. Paolo Pinotti, 2017. "Clicking on Heaven's Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 138-168, January.
    13. Yang He & Otávio Bartalotti, 2020. "Wild bootstrap for fuzzy regression discontinuity designs: obtaining robust bias-corrected confidence intervals," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 211-231.
    14. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    15. Decio Coviello & Andrea Guglielmo & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2018. "The Effect of Discretion on Procurement Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 715-738, February.
    16. Bernardo P. Schettini & Rafael Terra, 2020. "Electoral incentives and Public Employees’ Retirement Systems in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 79-103, July.
    17. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Steven F. Koch, 2017. "User Fee Abolition and the Demand for Public Health Care," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(2), pages 242-258, June.
    19. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Frederik Wild & David Stadelmann, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Women's Schooling on Fertility, Literacy and Work: Evidence from Burundi's Free Primary Education Policy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 33(1), pages 67-91.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:110:y:2021:i:c:p:487-498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.