Does the trade of aviation emission permits lead to tourism-led growth and sustainable tourism?

One of the biggest challenges facing the tourism industry is carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the greenhouse gases emitted from aviation indispensable for tourism. Thus, governments have introduced emission permits trading to the aviation industry. However, as this is in the introductory stages, it is unclear how this environmental policy will influence tourism and the environment and whether the policy can contribute to the decarbonisation of the aviation industry. Using an R&D-based growth model considering aviation for tourism, this study investigates how introducing emissions permit trading in aviation influences tourism-led growth and sustainable tourism. Domestic tourism aviation, and not international tourism aviation, was considered because it is estimated that the former short-distance aviation movements emit more greenhouse gases than the latter. The findings demonstrate that fewer permits lead to sustainable tourism despite a generous permit allocation for the manufacturing sector if the goal of tourism-led growth is excluded. This is because the policy improves environmental quality and results in a trade-off between tourism consumption and the economic growth rate. For a generous permit allocation in aviation, the policy leads to decreased tourism consumption and pollution-intensive aviation. These findings imply that emissions permit trading between the aviation and manufacturing sectors inhibits the compatibility of tourism-led growth and sustainable tourism. Finally, this study suggests that sustainable tourism could be realised when manufacturing countries such as Germany and the UK increase aviation permits, while tourism countries such as Spain and Italy decrease aviation permits.