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A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

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  • Uchida, Kenetsu

Abstract

This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect “cry wolf” syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the “cry wolf” syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model.

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  • Uchida, Kenetsu, 2012. "A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 530-537.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:218:y:2012:i:2:p:530-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.050
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia de Oliveira Melo & Renata Marques Britto & Tharcisio Cotta Fontainha & Adriana Leiras & Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, 2017. "Evaluation of community leaders’ perception regarding Alerta Rio, the warning system for landslides caused by heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1343-1368, December.
    2. Preece, Gary & Shaw, Duncan & Hayashi, Haruo, 2015. "Application of the Viable System Model to analyse communications structures: A case study of disaster response in Japan," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 312-322.

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