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Optimization model for regional evacuation transportation system using macroscopic productivity function

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  • Zhang, Zhao
  • Parr, Scott A.
  • Jiang, Hai
  • Wolshon, Brian

Abstract

The simulation of mass evacuation traffic processes, while enormously valuable in emergency planning and management, presents a number of challenges to transportation modelers and analysts. One area where evacuation modeling and analysis has lacked is in the ability to determine the specific evacuation travel demand and capacity and conditions under which a road network can most effectively carry the maximum outflow rate for an area under threat of catastrophic disasters. This is a difficult question to answer because evacuations are so complex and can include millions of people, traveling on tens of thousands of miles of roads, lasting several hours or even days in duration. Knowledge of how to reduce the likelihood of over-saturation would be useful, for example, to develop temporally and spatially phased evacuation plans that meter demand into the system for maximum overall benefit. In this paper an optimization model is proposed to maximize evacuation throughput traffic for regional networks. This model aims at optimizing network outflow and trip complete percentage at a macroscopic level by changing the distribution of evacuation traffic in the time horizon. The productivity function, pioneered by Geroliminis and Daganzo (2007, 2008) is used to assess network performance from a macroscopic point of view. Then, an optimization model with the objective of maximizing both total network productivity and outflow rate is proposed. Further, a simulation based study of the New Orleans metropolitan area is used to validate the effectiveness of the optimization model.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhao & Parr, Scott A. & Jiang, Hai & Wolshon, Brian, 2015. "Optimization model for regional evacuation transportation system using macroscopic productivity function," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 616-630.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:81:y:2015:i:p2:p:616-630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2015.07.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wu, Wen-Xiang & Huang, Hai-Jun, 2019. "A combined, adaptive strategy for managing evacuation routes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 182-198.
    3. Zhang, Zhao & Fu, Daocheng, 2022. "Modeling pedestrian–vehicle mixed-flow in a complex evacuation scenario," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    4. Zhengfeng Huang & Pengjun Zheng & Gang Ren & Yang Cheng & Bin Ran, 2016. "Simultaneous optimization of evacuation route and departure time based on link-congestion mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 575-599, August.
    5. Satish V. Ukkusuri & Samiul Hasan & Binh Luong & Kien Doan & Xianyuan Zhan & Pamela Murray-Tuite & Weihao Yin, 2017. "A-RESCUE: An Agent based Regional Evacuation Simulator Coupled with User Enriched Behavior," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 197-223, March.

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