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Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand

Author

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  • Robenek, Tomáš
  • Azadeh, Shadi Sharif
  • Maknoon, Yousef
  • de Lapparent, Matthieu
  • Bierlaire, Michel

Abstract

A passenger centric timetable is such a timetable that the satisfaction of the passengers is maximized. However, these timetables only maximize the probability of a passenger to take the train, but provide no insight on the actual choices of the passengers. Therefore, in this manuscript we replace the deterministic passenger satisfaction function with a probabilistic demand forecasting model inside of the passenger centric train timetable design. The actual forecasts lead to a realistic train occupation. Knowing the train occupation, we can estimate the revenue and to use pricing as a mobility management to further improve the level-of-service. We use a logit model that we calibrate to reflect the known demand elasticities. We further include a competing operator as an opt-out option for the passengers. Subsequently, we integrate the passenger centric train timetabling problem with a ticket pricing problem. We solve the elastic passenger centric train timetabling problem for various types of timetables using a simulated annealing heuristic on a case study of Israeli Railways. The results of our case study show that the generated revenues can be increased by up to 15% when taking into account the passengers’ behavior along with a specific pricing scheme. This study further confirms the advantages of hybrid cyclicity.

Suggested Citation

  • Robenek, Tomáš & Azadeh, Shadi Sharif & Maknoon, Yousef & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2018. "Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:19-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2018.03.002
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