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Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors

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  • Wardman, Mark

Abstract

This paper estimates an enhanced model for forecasting railway demand and to explain the high levels of growth in the 1990s in Great Britain. The key driver of demand is found to be GDP, but variations in car times, fuel costs, car ownership, population and a post-privatisation time trend also made significant contributions. The estimation makes use of two large data sets obtained from recorded ticket sales and from travel surveys. The estimated models are in use within the rail industry in Great Britain and have been able to successfully predict rail demand growth since 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Wardman, Mark, 2006. "Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 129-148, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:42:y:2006:i:3:p:129-148
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    Cited by:

    1. Nash, Chris & Smith, Andrew, 2020. "Public transport procurement in Britain," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Losada-Rojas, Lisa Lorena & Gkartzonikas, Christos & Pyrialakou, V. Dimitra & Gkritza, Konstantina, 2019. "Exploring intercity passengers’ attitudes and loyalty to intercity passenger rail: Evidence from an on-board survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-83.
    3. Preston, John & Robins, Dawn, 2013. "Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 14-20.
    4. Toner, Jeremy & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & Teklu, Fitsum & Hatfield, Andrew, 2020. "Enhancing rail direct demand models with competition between ticket types using contributions from economic theory and market research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-144.
    5. Preston, John & Bickel, Charles, 2020. "And the beat goes on. The continued trials and tribulations of passenger rail franchising in Great Britain," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Nash, Chris & Nilsson, Jan-Eric & Link, Heike, 2011. "Comparing three models for introduction of competition into railways – is a Big Wolf so Bad after all?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:19, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    7. Ahern, Aoife A. & Tapley, Nigel, 2008. "The use of stated preference techniques to model modal choices on interurban trips in Ireland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 15-27, January.
    8. Waters II, William G., 2007. "Evolution of Railroad Economics," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-67, January.
    9. Cascetta, Ennio & Coppola, Pierluigi, 2016. "Assessment of schedule-based and frequency-based assignment models for strategic and operational planning of high-speed rail services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 93-108.
    10. Wardman, Mark & Lythgoe, William & Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting: Cross-Sectional Models Revisited," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 119-152, January.
    11. Chris Nash, 2011. "Competition and Regulation in Rail Transport," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 33, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Ignacio Escañuela Romana & Mercedes Torres-Jiménez & Mariano Carbonero-Ruz, 2023. "Elasticities of Passenger Transport Demand on US Intercity Routes: Impact on Public Policies for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Robenek, Tomáš & Azadeh, Shadi Sharif & Maknoon, Yousef & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2018. "Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-38.
    14. Rahman, Syed & Balijepalli, Chandra, 2016. "Understanding the determinants of demand for public transport: Evidence from suburban rail operations in five divisions of Indian Railways," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-22.
    15. Chris Nash, 2013. "Rail transport," Chapters, in: Mattias Finger & Torben Holvad (ed.), Regulating Transport in Europe, chapter 3, pages 61-81, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. F. Cerina & L. Cocco & K. Mannaro & M. Marchesi & F. Pigliaru, 2020. "Insularity and the development of a local railway network," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 683-702, July.
    17. Chen, Mu-Chen & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Exploring time variants for short-term passenger flow," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 488-498.
    18. Wardman, Mark & Hatfield, Andrew & Shires, Jeremy & Ishtaiwi, Mahmoud, 2019. "The sensitivity of rail demand to variations in motoring costs: Findings from a comparison of methods," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-199.
    19. Antonio Couto & Daniel Graham, 2008. "The impact of high-speed technology on railway demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, January.
    20. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang, 2010. "High-speed rail in Taiwan: New experience and issues for future development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 51-63, March.
    21. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    22. Espinosa-Aranda, José Luis & García-Ródenas, Ricardo & Ramírez-Flores, María del Carmen & López-García, María Luz & Angulo, Eusebio, 2015. "High-speed railway scheduling based on user preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 772-786.
    23. Fröidh, Oskar, 2008. "Perspectives for a future high-speed train in the Swedish domestic travel market," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 268-277.
    24. Ülengin, Füsun & Özaydın, Özay & Ülengin, Burç & Kopp, Andreas & Önsel, Şule & Kabak, Özgür & Aktaş, Emel, 2013. "Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 227-235.
    25. Cordera, Rubén & Sañudo, Roberto & dell’Olio, Luigi & Ibeas, Ángel, 2018. "Trip distribution model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 77-84.

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