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The impact of alternative development strategies on growth and distribution: Simulations with a dynamic model for Egypt

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  • El-Said, Moataz
  • Löfgren, Hans
  • Robinson, Sherman

Abstract

Addressing longer-term issues of economic development in Egypt, the paper employs a dynamically recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the outcomes associated with two types of development approaches over the period 1998-2012. One is a targeted sector development approach, and the second is a more broad-based development approach. The results indicate that, when agricultural exports remain relatively low, promoting the Egyptian textile sector is a win-win scenario in terms of rapid growth and equity. In addition, adopting policies that maintain agricultural prices leads to rapid growth and a general improvement of the distribution of income among households. A crucial policy objectives for achieving rapid and egalitarian growth for the Egyptian economy is the ability to secure improved access to international textile markets and the successful expansion of agricultural exports.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Said, Moataz & Löfgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "The impact of alternative development strategies on growth and distribution: Simulations with a dynamic model for Egypt," TMD discussion papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shorrocks, A F, 1980. "The Class of Additively Decomposable Inequality Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 613-625, April.
    2. Frank A. Cowell, 1980. "On the Structure of Additive Inequality Measures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(3), pages 521-531.
    3. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 937-949, September.
    4. Shorrocks, Anthony F, 1984. "Inequality Decomposition by Population Subgroups," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1369-1385, November.
    5. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947, Elsevier.
    6. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," CUDARE Working Paper Series 309, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    7. Bourguignon, Francois, 1979. "Decomposable Income Inequality Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 901-920, July.
    8. Lofgren, Hans & El-Said, Moataz, 2001. "Food subsidies in Egypt: reform options, distribution and welfare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 65-83, February.
    9. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Income distribution and development," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 949-1003, Elsevier.
    10. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhenhua & Xue, Junbo & Rose, Adam Z. & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2016. "The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 232-245.
    2. Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2002. "Estimation of a regionalized Mexican Social Accounting Matrix: Using entropy techniques to reconcile disparate data sources," TMD discussion papers 97, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Rudiger von Arnim & Codrina Rada, 2011. "Labor productivity and energy use in a three sector model: An application to Egypt," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2011_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    4. Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Orden, David, 2005. "Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call," MTID discussion papers 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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