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Modeling the commute mode share of transit using continuous accessibility to jobs

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  • Owen, Andrew
  • Levinson, David M.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an accessibility-based model of aggregate commute mode share, focusing on the share of transit relative to auto. It demonstrates the use of continuous accessibility – calculated continuously in time, rather than at a single of a few departure times – for the evaluation of transit systems. These accessibility calculations are accomplished using only publicly-available data sources. A binomial logic model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a commuter will choose transit rather than auto for a commute trip based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as detailed accessibility calculations for both transit and auto. The mode achieves a ρ2 value of 0.597, and analysis of the results suggests that continuous accessibility of transit systems may be a valuable tool for use in modeling and forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen, Andrew & Levinson, David M., 2015. "Modeling the commute mode share of transit using continuous accessibility to jobs," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 110-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:110-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public transit; Accessibility; Modeling; Mode share; Mode choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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