IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v175y2023ics0965856423001969.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are seniors in mountainous areas able to realize their desired trips? A novel approach to estimate trip demand

Author

Listed:
  • Miwa, Tomio
  • Wang, Jianbiao
  • Morikawa, Takayuki

Abstract

Public transport services in mountainous areas are limited, and seniors living in such areas experience various inconveniences in their daily lives. Therefore, the planning of adequate services is crucial in improving the quality of life. Conventionally, public transport services are planned based on observed trip demands, which are referred to as realized trip demands in this study. However, this approach is inadequate because seniors living in an area with insufficient public transport services are generally unable to realize all their desired trips. This study proposes a model to predict the desired trip demand based on the analysis of the travel conditions of seniors in mountainous areas. The proposed model predicts the desired trip demands based on both the realized and unrealized trip demands. The bivariate Poisson regression model is applied to the distribution of desired trip demands and mobility constraints, and the joint probability model, which considers the relationship between them, is proposed. Additionally, in the case where respondents are unable to report the unrealized trip demands accurately, an alternative method is implemented to estimate the desired trip demand based only on the information on whether unrealized trip demand exists, and its estimation results are discussed. The analysis results demonstrate that the conventional trip demand model, established using realized trip demands, underestimates the trip demand in the target area and show that the estimated parameters are biased. The conventional trip demand model neglects 30–50% of trip demands in the target area and cannot provide the trip demand required for appropriate transportation planning. The reproducibility of the desired trip demands can be further improved by extending the model to consider overdispersion or the case where unrealized trip demands have a large share of zero trips or both.

Suggested Citation

  • Miwa, Tomio & Wang, Jianbiao & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2023. "Are seniors in mountainous areas able to realize their desired trips? A novel approach to estimate trip demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:175:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423001969
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103776
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856423001969
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103776?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shao, Fengjing & Sui, Yi & Yu, Xiang & Sun, Rencheng, 2019. "Spatio-temporal travel patterns of elderly people – A comparative study based on buses usage in Qingdao, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 178-190.
    2. Zhao, Pengjun & Yu, Zhao, 2020. "Investigating mobility in rural areas of China: Features, equity, and factors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 66-77.
    3. Villena-Sanchez, Jessica & Boschmann, E. Eric & Avila-Forcada, Sara, 2022. "Daily travel behaviors and transport mode choice of older adults in Mexico City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Ren, Xiangxia & Zhang, Jun & Song, Weiguo & Cao, Shuchao, 2021. "Mechanisms of passing through short exits for the elderly and young adults," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 195-213.
    5. van Dülmen, Christoph & Šimon, Martin & Klärner, Andreas, 2022. "Transport poverty meets car dependency: A GPS tracking study of socially disadvantaged groups in European rural peripheries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Yu, Zhao & Zhao, Pengjun, 2021. "The factors in residents' mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership, road infrastructure and public transport services," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Feng, Jianxi & Dijst, Martin & Wissink, Bart & Prillwitz, Jan, 2013. "The impacts of household structure on the travel behaviour of seniors and young parents in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-126.
    8. Terza, Joseph V., 1985. "A Tobit-type estimator for the censored Poisson regression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 361-365.
    9. Lachapelle, Ugo & Cloutier, Marie-Soleil, 2017. "On the complexity of finishing a crossing on time: Elderly pedestrians, timing and cycling infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 54-63.
    10. Haustein, Sonja & Siren, Anu, 2014. "Seniors’ unmet mobility needs – how important is a driving licence?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 45-52.
    11. Wong, R.C.P. & Yang, Linchuan & Szeto, W.Y. & Li, Y.C. & Wong, S.C., 2020. "The effects of accessible taxi service and taxi fare subsidy scheme on the elderly's willingness-to-travel," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 129-136.
    12. Susanne Nordbakke & Tim Schwanen, 2015. "Transport, unmet activity needs and wellbeing in later life: exploring the links," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 1129-1151, November.
    13. Cohen, Tom, 2020. "Tools for addressing transport inequality: A novel variant of accessibility measurement," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Wang, Jianbiao & Miwa, Tomio & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2023. "Recursive decomposition probability model for demand estimation of street-hailing taxis utilizing GPS trajectory data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 171-195.
    15. Evan Fields & Carolina Osorio & Tianli Zhou, 2021. "A Data-Driven Method for Reconstructing a Distribution from a Truncated Sample with an Application to Inferring Car-Sharing Demand," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 616-636, May.
    16. Zhan, Guangjun & Yan, Xuedong & Zhu, Shanjiang & Wang, Yun, 2016. "Using hierarchical tree-based regression model to examine university student travel frequency and mode choice patterns in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 55-65.
    17. Shirgaokar, Manish & Dobbs, Bonnie & Anderson, Leah & Hussey, Emily, 2020. "Do rural older adults take fewer trips than their urban counterparts for lack of a ride?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Sultana, Zohora & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Cherry, Christopher R. & Golias, Mihalis M. & Tabrizizadeh Jeffers, Saman, 2018. "Modeling frequency of rural demand response transit trips," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 494-505.
    19. Kolodinsky, Jane M. & DeSisto, Thomas Patrick & Propen, David & Putnam, Matthew E. & Roche, Erin & Sawyer, William R., 2013. "It is not how far you go, it is whether you can get there: modeling the effects of mobility on quality of life in rural New England," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 113-122.
    20. Carroll, Páraic & Benevenuto, Rodolfo & Caulfield, Brian, 2021. "Identifying hotspots of transport disadvantage and car dependency in rural Ireland," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 46-56.
    21. Mounce, Richard & Beecroft, Mark & Nelson, John D., 2020. "On the role of frameworks and smart mobility in addressing the rural mobility problem," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Zhao & Zhao, Pengjun, 2021. "The factors in residents' mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership, road infrastructure and public transport services," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Deka, Devajyoti, 2022. "Trip deprivation among older adults in the context of the capability approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Yuan, Dandan & Zhao, Pengjun & Yu, Zhao & Liu, Qiyang, 2023. "Villagers' travel burden and the built environment in rural China: Evidence from a national level survey," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Huang, Xiaoyan & Xia, Yifan & Yin, Chun, 2024. "Associations between the built environment and travel to higher-order centers in Chinese rural areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Zhao, Pengjun & Yu, Zhao, 2021. "Rural poverty and mobility in China: A national-level survey," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Ma, Jingwen & Zhao, Shengchuan & Li, Wu & Liu, Meng & Luo, Huanhuan, 2022. "Heterogeneity in seniors' unmet walking needs: A latent class analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Jean Ryan, 2020. "Examining the Process of Modal Choice for Everyday Travel Among Older People," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Derya Parmaksız & M. Ali Ülkü & Heidi Weigand, 2024. "Investigating Rural Logistics and Transportation through the Lens of Quadruple Bottom Line Sustainability," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Li, Shengxiao (Alex) & Duan, Hongyu (Anna) & Smith, Tony E. & Hu, Haoyu, 2021. "Time-varying accessibility to senior centers by public transit in Philadelphia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 245-258.
    10. Wan, Zhengyue & Titheridge, Helena, 2024. "Socially sustainable transport in the context of different-sized cities in China:Conceptualisation and operationalisation of equity," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Ralph, Kelcie & Morris, Eric A. & Kwon, Jaekyeong, 2022. "Disability, access to out-of-home activities, and subjective well-being," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 209-227.
    12. Aurore Flipo & Madeleine Sallustio & Nathalie Ortar & Nicolas Senil, 2021. "Sustainable Mobility and the Institutional Lock-In: The Example of Rural France," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Yafei Liu & Martin Dijst & Stan Geertman, 2017. "The subjective well-being of older adults in Shanghai: The role of residential environment and individual resources," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(7), pages 1692-1714, May.
    14. Wang, Jianbiao & Miwa, Tomio & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2023. "Recursive decomposition probability model for demand estimation of street-hailing taxis utilizing GPS trajectory data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 171-195.
    15. Xuesong Gao & Lun Liu & Dinghua Ou & Haomiao Yuwu, 2023. "Using mobile phone data to probe the mobility‐related well‐being of rural residents: A case study of Chengdu, China," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(9), pages 1893-1906, December.
    16. Bindu Panikkar & Qing Ren & Fosca Bechthold, 2023. "Transportation Justice in Vermont Communities of High Environmental Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Cheng, Long & Chen, Xuewu & Yang, Shuo & Cao, Zhan & De Vos, Jonas & Witlox, Frank, 2019. "Active travel for active ageing in China: The role of built environment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 142-152.
    18. Zhao, Pengjun & Yu, Zhao, 2020. "Investigating mobility in rural areas of China: Features, equity, and factors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 66-77.
    19. Willberg, Elias & Fink, Christoph & Toivonen, Tuuli, 2023. "The 15-minute city for all? – Measuring individual and temporal variations in walking accessibility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    20. Dong Lin & Jianqiang Cui, 2021. "Transport and Mobility Needs for an Ageing Society from a Policy Perspective: Review and Implications," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-16, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:175:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423001969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.