Heterogeneity in seniors' unmet walking needs: A latent class analysis

The rapid demographic shift towards an aging society in China will bring more challenges to meeting the travel needs of older adults, especially the heterogeneity and differences in backgrounds, health, and subjective perceptions of them making it even harder. Walking, as a primary travel mode and physical activity for seniors in China, is important for them to keep involved in social life and maintain active and wellbeing while aging. Studies on the walking behavior of older adults have been focusing on realized journeys, but the research on the unmet walking needs has received insufficient attention. Moreover, most studies treated older adults as a homogeneous group. As such, this study examines how socio-demographic and built environment variables affect the unmet walking needs of older adults considering the unobserved heterogeneity by relying on subjective predictors of walking. The unmet walking needs are defined as the gaps between expected and actual walking frequencies. This is done by employing a hybrid approach integrating latent class analysis (LCA) and a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model based on data collected from 533 older adults over 60 in China in 2021. Results of LCA show that three latent segments can be identified, i.e., Enthusiastic Walking Respondents with Excellent Health (EWEH), Positive Walking Respondents with Languishing Health (PWLH), and Fair Walking Respondents with Languishing Health (FWLH). The results of the ZIP regression model indicate that age, gender, income, elevator, and distances to the nearest bus stop are the relatively contributing factors to unmet walking needs for both three classes. Moreover, built environment factors, such as access to bus stops and distances to the nearest leisure facility, have the most significant influence on EWEH class. The findings of this study will offer insights for effective policies and interventions to build an age-friendly environment.