IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v162y2022icp155-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accelerating electric vehicle uptake: Modelling public policy options on prices and infrastructure

Author

Listed:
  • Broadbent, Gail Helen
  • Allen, Cameron Ian
  • Wiedmann, Thomas
  • Metternicht, Graciela Isabel

Abstract

Transitioning to passenger battery electric vehicles (BEV) can mitigate climate change impacts of road transportation. We develop a novel BEV policy model, nesting it within a national-scale macroeconomic system dynamics model (iSDG-Australia) to simulate a suite of policy pathways. We model combinations of infrastructure support and subsidies, which bring forward the price-parity tipping point, thus rapidly accelerating BEVs’ share of new car sales. However, ongoing complementary charging infrastructure investment is critical to reach 100% new BEV car sales by 2050 in Australia. Even with a rapid transition, the modelled fleet would not achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 due to vehicle longevity; and suddenly ceasing financial incentives could retard BEV sales by a decade. Based on our assumptions, results suggest emissions reductions are maximised by the fastest transition of the passenger vehicle fleet to BEVs, entailing government policy support from 2020 to 2050, for both adequate infrastructure deployment (AUD17.9b) and vehicle rebates (AUD19.5b), which achieves earlier BEV price-parity with fossil-fuelled vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Broadbent, Gail Helen & Allen, Cameron Ian & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela Isabel, 2022. "Accelerating electric vehicle uptake: Modelling public policy options on prices and infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 155-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:162:y:2022:i:c:p:155-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856422001331
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neaimeh, Myriam & Salisbury, Shawn D. & Hill, Graeme A. & Blythe, Philip T. & Scoffield, Don R. & Francfort, James E., 2017. "Analysing the usage and evidencing the importance of fast chargers for the adoption of battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 474-486.
    2. Baumgarte, Felix & Kaiser, Matthias & Keller, Robert, 2021. "Policy support measures for widespread expansion of fast charging infrastructure for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2017. "A stated choice experiment to measure the effect of informational and normative conformity in the preference for electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 88-104.
    4. Wee, Sherilyn & Coffman, Makena & Allen, Scott, 2020. "EV driver characteristics: Evidence from Hawaii," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 33-40.
    5. Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sreenivasan, Ajith Viswanath & Sharp, Basil & Du, Bo, 2021. "Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption for electric vehicles: A comparative study in Oceania," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    7. Gerben Bakker, 2021. "Infrastructure killed the electric car," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 947-948, October.
    8. O. Schmidt & A. Hawkes & A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, 2017. "The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    9. Gallagher, Kelly Sims & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Fritz, Markus & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon A., 2019. "The impact of ambitious fuel economy standards on the market uptake of electric vehicles and specific CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Simon Sharpe & Timothy M. Lenton, 2021. "Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 421-433, April.
    12. Gerardo Zarazua de Rubens & Lance Noel & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2018. "Dismissive and deceptive car dealerships create barriers to electric vehicle adoption at the point of sale," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 501-507, June.
    13. Egnér, Filippa & Trosvik, Lina, 2018. "Electric vehicle adoption in Sweden and the impact of local policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 584-596.
    14. Mr. David Coady & Ian W.H. Parry & Nghia-Piotr Le & Baoping Shang, 2019. "Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2019/089, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Smith, Adrian & Stirling, Andy & Berkhout, Frans, 2005. "The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1491-1510, December.
    16. Michael L. Ross & Chad Hazlett & Paasha Mahdavi, 2017. "Global progress and backsliding on gasoline taxes and subsidies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6, January.
    17. Santos, Georgina, 2017. "Road transport and CO2 emissions: What are the challenges?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-74.
    18. Gail Helen Broadbent & Graciela Isabel Metternicht & Thomas Oliver Wiedmann, 2021. "Increasing Electric Vehicle Uptake by Updating Public Policies to Shift Attitudes and Perceptions: Case Study of New Zealand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, May.
    19. Jeroen Struben & John D. Sterman, 2008. "Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems," Post-Print hal-02312277, HAL.
    20. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    21. Noah Kittner & Felix Lill & Daniel M. Kammen, 2017. "Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 1-6, September.
    22. Scott Hardman & Gil Tal, 2021. "Understanding discontinuance among California’s electric vehicle owners," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 538-545, May.
    23. Diamond, David, 2009. "The impact of government incentives for hybrid-electric vehicles: Evidence from US states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 972-983, March.
    24. Pettifor, H. & Wilson, C. & Axsen, J. & Abrahamse, W. & Anable, J., 2017. "Social influence in the global diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles – A meta-analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 247-261.
    25. Patt, Anthony & Aplyn, David & Weyrich, Philippe & van Vliet, Oscar, 2019. "Availability of private charging infrastructure influences readiness to buy electric cars," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-7.
    26. Cameron Allen & Graciela Metternicht & Thomas Wiedmann & Matteo Pedercini, 2019. "Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 1041-1050, November.
    27. Morrissey, Patrick & Weldon, Peter & O’Mahony, Margaret, 2016. "Future standard and fast charging infrastructure planning: An analysis of electric vehicle charging behaviour," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 257-270.
    28. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broadbent, Gail & Allen, Cameron & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela, 2022. "The role of electric vehicles in decarbonising Australia’s road transport sector: modelling ambitious scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Wang, Zhuowei & Yu, Jiangbo (Gabe) & Chen, Anthony & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Subsidy policies towards zero-emission bus fleets: A systematic technical-economic analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Say, Kelvin & Brown, Felix Gabriel & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna, 2024. "The economics of public transport electrification: When does infrastructure investment matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    4. Cameron Allen & Annabel Biddulph & Thomas Wiedmann & Matteo Pedercini & Shirin Malekpour, 2024. "Modelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Lehua Bi & Shaorui Zhou & Jianjie Ke & Xiaoming Song, 2023. "Knowledge-Mapping Analysis of Urban Sustainable Transportation Using CiteSpace," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Vidyattama, Yogi & Tanton, Robert & Sinclair, Darren & Schirmer, Jacki, 2024. "Simulating electric vehicle policy in the Australian capital territory," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 91-99.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broadbent, Gail & Allen, Cameron & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela, 2022. "The role of electric vehicles in decarbonising Australia’s road transport sector: modelling ambitious scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Zhang, Qi & Li, Hailong & Zhu, Lijing & Campana, Pietro Elia & Lu, Huihui & Wallin, Fredrik & Sun, Qie, 2018. "Factors influencing the economics of public charging infrastructures for EV – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 500-509.
    4. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Pantelis Capros, 2021. "Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    5. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    6. Wee, Sherilyn & Coffman, Makena & Allen, Scott, 2020. "EV driver characteristics: Evidence from Hawaii," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 33-40.
    7. Yuan-Yuan Wang & Yuan-Ying Chi & Jin-Hua Xu & Jia-Lin Li, 2021. "Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Based on the Text Mining Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Soares, N. & Martins, A.G. & Carvalho, A.L. & Caldeira, C. & Du, C. & Castanheira, É. & Rodrigues, E. & Oliveira, G. & Pereira, G.I. & Bastos, J. & Ferreira, J.P. & Ribeiro, L.A. & Figueiredo, N.C. & , 2018. "The challenging paradigm of interrelated energy systems towards a more sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 171-193.
    9. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    10. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    12. Rostad Sæther, Simen, 2022. "Mobility at the crossroads – Electric mobility policy and charging infrastructure lessons from across Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 144-159.
    13. Chandra, Minal, 2022. "Investigating the impact of policies, socio-demography and national commitments on electric-vehicle demand: Cross-country study," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Sun, Xiaohua & Liu, Xiaoling & Wang, Yun & Yuan, Fang, 2019. "The effects of public subsidies on emerging industry: An agent-based model of the electric vehicle industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 281-295.
    15. Qiu, Y.Q. & Zhou, P. & Sun, H.C., 2019. "Assessing the effectiveness of city-level electric vehicle policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 22-31.
    16. Iogansen, Xiatian & Wang, Kailai & Bunch, David & Matson, Grant & Circella, Giovanni, 2023. "Deciphering the factors associated with adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in California: An investigation of latent attitudes, socio-demographics, and neighborhood effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Bhat, Furqan A. & Verma, Ashish, 2024. "Electric two-wheeler adoption in India – A discrete choice analysis of motivators and barriers affecting the potential electric two-wheeler buyers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-131.
    18. Ken’ichi Matsumoto & Yui Nakamine & Sunyong Eom & Hideki Kato, 2021. "Demographic, Social, Economic, and Regional Factors Affecting the Diffusion of Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    19. Azarafshar, Roshanak & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2020. "Electric vehicle incentive policies in Canadian provinces," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Zunian Luo, 2022. "Powering Up a Slow Charging Market: How Do Government Subsidies Affect Charging Station Supply?," Papers 2210.14908, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:162:y:2022:i:c:p:155-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.