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Prediction of U.S. General Aviation fatalities from extreme value approach

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  • Diamoutene, Abdoulaye
  • Kamsu-Foguem, Bernard
  • Noureddine, Farid
  • Barro, Diakarya

Abstract

General Aviation is the main component of the United States civil aviation and the most aviation accidents concern this aviation category. Between early 2015 and May 17, 2016, a total of 1546 general aviation accidents in the United States has left 466 fatalities and 384 injured. Hence, in this study, we investigate the risk of U.S. General Aviation accidents by examining historical U.S. General Aviation accidents. Using the Peak Over Threshold approach and Generalized Pareto Distribution, we predict the number of fatalities resulting in extreme GA accidents in the future operations. We use a graphical method and intensive parameters estimates to obtain the optimal range of the threshold. In order to assess the uncertainty in the inference and the accuracy of the results, we use the nonparametric bootstrap approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Diamoutene, Abdoulaye & Kamsu-Foguem, Bernard & Noureddine, Farid & Barro, Diakarya, 2018. "Prediction of U.S. General Aviation fatalities from extreme value approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 65-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:65-75
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. del Castillo, Joan & Daoudi, Jalila, 2009. "Estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 684-688, March.
    2. Romeijnders, Ward & Teunter, Ruud & van Jaarsveld, Willem, 2012. "A two-step method for forecasting spare parts demand using information on component repairs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 386-393.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdoulaye Diamoutene & Farid Noureddine & Rachid Noureddine & Bernard Kamsu-Foguem & Diakarya Barro, 2020. "Proportional hazard model for cutting tool recovery in machining," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 322-332, April.
    2. Calabrese, Curtis G. & Molesworth, Brett R.C. & Hatfield, Julie & Slavich, Eve, 2022. "Effects of the Federal Aviation Administration's Compliance Program on aircraft incidents and accidents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 304-319.

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