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“Black Swans” before the “Black Swan” evidence from international LIBOR–OIS spreads

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  • Olson, Eric
  • Miller, Scott
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

The LIBOR–OIS spread is a closely monitored indicator of the financial health of economy. Previous research has used this spread to identify and anticipate abrupt changes in financial markets. Taylor and Williams (2009) refer to the drastic increase in the US LIBOR–OIS spread on August 7th, 2007 as a “Black Swan” in the money market. In this paper, rather than rely on visual observations of “Black Swans” we estimate them using Bai and Perron’s (1998) procedure. We estimate structural breaks, Granger causality tests, and innovation accounting in international LIBOR–OIS spreads and a CDS index to better understand their dynamics during the recent crisis. Our results reveal that “Black Swans” appeared in smaller economies prior to that in large ones during the financial crisis. In addition, we find that only shocks to the US LIBOR–OIS spread has any statistically significant effects after 30 days.

Suggested Citation

  • Olson, Eric & Miller, Scott & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "“Black Swans” before the “Black Swan” evidence from international LIBOR–OIS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1339-1357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1339-1357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Structural breaks; Global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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