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Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries

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  • Turk, Tomaž
  • Trkman, Peter

Abstract

The paper presents a broadband diffusion analysis for European OECD member countries. The Bass diffusion model is used to estimate the total number of potential adopters, the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation. The analysis shows that if the present trends continue broadband services will not reach the 100% penetration rate in the near future. Based on these findings, the question of a possible revitalization is discussed with a focus on those segments of the population which are slower to adopt broadband. A survey of households in rural areas provides preliminary investigation of reasons for continuing non-adoption, such as social habits and lack of both knowledge and interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:1:p:85-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.010
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    16. Sudtasan, Tatcha, 2015. "Economic determinants of optical fiber share in total broadband connections in OECD countries," 26th European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2015 127179, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    17. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Xiaoxia Fu & Ping Zhang & Juzhi Zhang, 2017. "Forecasting and Analyzing Internet Users of China with Lotka–Volterra Model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(01), pages 1-18, February.
    19. Jinah Yang & Daiki Min & Jeenyoung Kim, 2020. "The Use of Big Data and Its Effects in a Diffusion Forecasting Model for Korean Reverse Mortgage Subscribers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Monica Bonacina & Mert Demir & Antonio Sileo & Angela Zanoni, 2024. "The slow lane: a study on the diffusion of full-electric cars in Italy," Working Papers 2024.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    21. Lee, Hakyeon & Kim, Sang Gook & Park, Hyun-woo & Kang, Pilsung, 2014. "Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-64.
    22. Mitrović, Slobodan & Radojičić, Valentina & Stojanović, Mirjana & Marković, Goran, 2018. "The capacity expansion approach in optical transport networks with fixed and flexible grids," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 310-316.

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