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Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model

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  • Dietrich, Jan Philipp
  • Schmitz, Christoph
  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann
  • Popp, Alexander
  • Müller, Christoph

Abstract

Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander & Müller, Christoph, 2014. "Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 236-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:81:y:2014:i:c:p:236-249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Searchinger, Timothy D. & Beringer, Tim & Strong, Asa, 2017. "Does the world have low-carbon bioenergy potential from the dedicated use of land?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 434-446.
    2. Palma Lampreia Dos Santos, Maria José, 2018. "Nowcasting and forecasting aquaponics by Google Trends in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 178-185.
    3. Wang, X. & Dietrich, J.P. & Lotze-Campen, H. & Biewald, A. & Munson, T.S. & Muller, C., 2018. "Trading More Food in the Context of High-end Climate Change: Implications for Land Displacement through Agricultural Trade," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276997, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    5. O. Borodina, S. Kyryziuk, V. Yarovyi, Yu. Ermoliev, T. Ermolieva, 2016. "Modeling local land uses under the global climate change," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 117-128.
    6. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    7. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Julien CALAS & Etienne ESPAGNE & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN, 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for Biodiversity-Related Financial Risks?," Working Paper a562217f-0f0e-4965-beb8-5, Agence française de développement.
    9. Christoph Schmitz & Hans van Meijl & Page Kyle & Gerald C. Nelson & Shinichiro Fujimori & Angelo Gurgel & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Alexander Popp & Ron Sands & Andrzej Tabea, 2014. "Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 69-84, January.
    10. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Minjin Lee & Charles A. Stock & Elena Shevliakova & Sergey Malyshev & Maureen Beaudor & Nicolas Vuichard, 2024. "Uneven consequences of global climate mitigation pathways on regional water quality in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Jan Philipp Dietrich & Susanne Rolinski & Isabelle Weindl & Christoph Schmitz & Christoph Müller & Markus Bonsch & Florian Humpenöder &, 2014. "Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    15. Jessica Strefler & Leon Merfort & Nico Bauer & Miodrag Stevanović & Dennis Tänzler & Florian Humpenöder & David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Robert C. Pietzcker & Alexander Popp & Renato Ro, 2024. "Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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