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Future scenarios to inspire innovation

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  • De Smedt, Peter
  • Borch, Kristian
  • Fuller, Ted

Abstract

In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy-making. These grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.

Suggested Citation

  • De Smedt, Peter & Borch, Kristian & Fuller, Ted, 2013. "Future scenarios to inspire innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 432-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:3:p:432-443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. S. V. Pronichkin & I. B. Mamay & R. N. Bafoev, 2019. "Problems and prospects for evaluating the effectiveness of scientific activity in the chemical-technological field," Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, MISIS, vol. 12(2).
    8. Lisa A. Pace & Kristian Borch & Alan Deidun, 2023. "Bridging Knowledge Gaps towards 2030: The Use of Foresight for the Strategic Management of a Sustainable Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
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    14. Hansen, Mette Sanne & Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard & Jacobsen, Peter, 2016. "Interactive foresight simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 214-227.
    15. Bourgeois, Robin & Penunia, Esther & Bisht, Sonali & Boruk, Don, 2017. "Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 178-188.
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    17. Emami, Amir & Yoruk, Esin & Jones, Paul, 2023. "The interplay between market need urgency, entrepreneurial push and pull insights and opportunity confidence in the course of new venture creation in the developing country context," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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