IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v209y2024ics0040162524006140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A holistic approach to assessing reliability in green hydrogen supply chains using mixed methods

Author

Listed:
  • De-León Almaraz, Sofía
  • Moustapha Mai, Tchougoune
  • Melendez, Iris Rocio
  • Loganathan, M.K.
  • Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine

Abstract

Estimating the reliability of future energy supply chains is a vital yet complex task driven by environmental and energy security concerns in the context of the ongoing energy transition. This transition necessitates the integration of new technologies and systems into interconnected networks or supply chains. In this context, hydrogen plays a crucial role in the transition to green energy, as it is anticipated a surge in the establishment of “green” hydrogen supply chains (HSC), necessitating the assurance of reliability in meeting international roadmap targets. Technological reliability is typically evaluated by applying quantitative methods to current technologies. For future HSCs, the reliability assessment challenge is related to their prospective nature, with additional uncertainty due to the technologies' interdependencies. When stakeholders rely solely on technology readiness levels, essential aspects of the supply chain are not considered. This work introduces a novel methodology to assess the technological and organizational reliability of future HSCs, contributing to the literature on hydrogen reliability and strategic foresight. It also offers macro-level reliability projections for green HSCs by 2030, integrating input from energy experts and providing valuable insights for the scientific community, academia, and professionals. The proposed methodology's novelty lies in its ability to integrate various nodes of prospective HSCs. The study employs mixed methods, incorporating quantitative (multi-attribute utility theory) and qualitative approaches (horizon scanning). Variables such as capacity, flexibility, infrastructure vulnerability, and consequences of disruption are considered to quantify reliability, with twenty-four metrics included. Data collection employs the perspective of 2030 through a participatory study based on surveys and interviews, drawing insights from twenty-nine international experts associated with various HSCs-related technologies. The methodology is applied to a case study for a green HSC involving solar/wind energy, electrolysis, transportation, storage, and refueling stations. This paper presents the quantitative results, projecting moderate reliability for green HSCs by 2030. Solar HSCs have been considered slightly more reliable than wind HSCs. The interdependence of electrolysis technology and several aspects related to hydrogen transportation are perceived as vital risks affecting the reliability of green HSCs. Having a constant hydrogen supply is seen as a more significant challenge than HSC's response to unexpected interruptions. The research found specific disparities in expert opinions that enriched the data collection process with complementary viewpoints, benefiting from the former's heterogeneous profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • De-León Almaraz, Sofía & Moustapha Mai, Tchougoune & Melendez, Iris Rocio & Loganathan, M.K. & Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine, 2024. "A holistic approach to assessing reliability in green hydrogen supply chains using mixed methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:209:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524006140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123816
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524006140
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123816?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0jb3w61z, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
    3. McCarthy, Ryan W. & Ogden, Joan M. & Sperling, Daniel, 2007. "Assessing reliability in energy supply systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2151-2162, April.
    4. van der Duin, Patrick & Trott, Paul & Ortt, Roland, 2024. "Failed technology management: Introducing ‘future technology myopia’ and how to address it," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt14g1g7t7, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Park, Joungho & Kang, Sungho & Kim, Sunwoo & Kim, Hana & Kim, Sang-Kyung & Lee, Jay H., 2024. "Optimizing green hydrogen systems: Balancing economic viability and reliability in the face of supply-demand volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    7. Juan C. González Palencia & Yuta Itoi & Mikiya Araki, 2022. "Design of a Hydrogen Production System Considering Energy Consumption, Water Consumption, CO 2 Emissions and Cost," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, October.
    8. Yue, Meiling & Lambert, Hugo & Pahon, Elodie & Roche, Robin & Jemei, Samir & Hissel, Daniel, 2021. "Hydrogen energy systems: A critical review of technologies, applications, trends and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. He, Yi & Guo, Su & Dong, Peixin & Wang, Chen & Huang, Jing & Zhou, Jianxu, 2022. "Techno-economic comparison of different hybrid energy storage systems for off-grid renewable energy applications based on a novel probabilistic reliability index," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    10. Franki, Vladimir & Višković, Alfredo, 2015. "Energy security, policy and technology in South East Europe: Presenting and applying an energy security index to Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 494-507.
    11. Liang, Hejun & Pirouzi, Sasan, 2024. "Energy management system based on economic Flexi-reliable operation for the smart distribution network including integrated energy system of hydrogen storage and renewable sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    12. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Verma, Mahesh & Taheri, Babak & Chopra, Ritika & Parihar, Jaya Singh, 2023. "Socio-economic aspects of hydrogen energy: An integrative review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    13. Hara, Keishiro & Miura, Iori & Suzuki, Masanori & Tanaka, Toshihiro, 2024. "Assessing future potentiality of technologies from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A case study of hydrothermal technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    14. McDowall, Will, 2012. "Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 530-542.
    15. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3tt704km, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    16. De-León Almaraz, Sofía & Rácz, Viktor & Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine & Szántó, Zoltán Oszkár, 2022. "Multiobjective and social cost-benefit optimisation for a sustainable hydrogen supply chain: Application to Hungary," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    17. Gábor Király & Alexandra Köves & György Pataki & Gabriella Kiss, 2016. "Assessing the Participatory Potential of Systems Mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 496-514, July.
    18. Krumm, Alexandra & Süsser, Diana & Blechinger, Philipp, 2022. "Modelling social aspects of the energy transition: What is the current representation of social factors in energy models?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    19. Leimeister, Mareike & Kolios, Athanasios, 2018. "A review of reliability-based methods for risk analysis and their application in the offshore wind industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1065-1076.
    20. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    21. Budde, Björn & Alkemade, Floortje & Weber, K. Matthias, 2012. "Expectations as a key to understanding actor strategies in the field of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1072-1083.
    22. Chi, Lixun & Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun, 2024. "Reliability of net-zero energy systems for South Wales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCarthy, Ryan & Ogden, Joan M, 2005. "Assessing Reliability In Hydrogen Supply Pathways," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt73s9b4wm, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. McCarthy, Ryan W. & Ogden, Joan M. & Sperling, Daniel, 2007. "Assessing reliability in energy supply systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2151-2162, April.
    3. McCarthy, Ryan & Ogden, Joan M, 2005. "Assessing Reliability In Hydrogen Supply Pathways," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt152260sc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. McCarthy, Ryan & Ogden, Joan M. & Sperling, Dan, 2008. "Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1dx4j35q, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Franki, Vladimir & Višković, Alfredo, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision support: A case study of Southeast Europe power systems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Gordon, Joel A. & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Nabavi, Seyed Ali, 2023. "Socio-technical barriers to domestic hydrogen futures: Repurposing pipelines, policies, and public perceptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    7. Budde, Björn & Konrad, Kornelia, 2019. "Tentative governing of fuel cell innovation in a dynamic network of expectations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1098-1112.
    8. Deirdre O’Donnell & Jimmy Murphy & Vikram Pakrashi, 2020. "Damage Monitoring of a Catenary Moored Spar Platform for Renewable Energy Devices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    9. Leonard Goke & Jens Weibezahn & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2021. "A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2112.04821, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    10. Thomas Pregger & Tobias Naegler & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Sigrid Prehofer & Wolfgang Hauser, 2020. "Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1743-1762, October.
    11. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Martins, Flavio Pinheiro & De-León Almaraz, Sofía & Botelho Junior, Amilton Barbosa & Azzaro-Pantel, Catherine & Parikh, Priti, 2024. "Hydrogen and the sustainable development goals: Synergies and trade-offs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Zeng, Xinmeng & Shao, Yanlin & Feng, Xingya & Xu, Kun & Jin, Ruijia & Li, Huajun, 2024. "Nonlinear hydrodynamics of floating offshore wind turbines: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Penna, Caetano C.R. & Geels, Frank W., 2015. "Climate change and the slow reorientation of the American car industry (1979–2012): An application and extension of the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1029-1048.
    15. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2016. "Emerging economies, emerging challenges: Mobilising and capturing value from big data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 167-174.
    16. Lan, Penghang & Chen, She & Li, Qihang & Li, Kelin & Wang, Feng & Zhao, Yaoxun, 2024. "Intelligent hydrogen-ammonia combined energy storage system with deep reinforcement learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    17. Karoline Augenstein & Alexandra Palzkill, 2015. "The Dilemma of Incumbents in Sustainability Transitions: A Narrative Approach," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    18. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.
    19. Junior Diamant Ngando Ebba & Mamadou Baïlo Camara & Mamadou Lamine Doumbia & Brayima Dakyo & Joseph Song-Manguelle, 2023. "Large-Scale Hydrogen Production Systems Using Marine Renewable Energies: State-of-the-Art," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Takey, Silvia Mayumi & Carvalho, Marly M., 2016. "Fuzzy front end of systemic innovations: A conceptual framework based on a systematic literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 97-109.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:209:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524006140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.