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Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

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  • McCarthy, Ryan
  • Ogden, Joan M.
  • Sperling, Dan

Abstract

Reliability has always been a concern in the energy sector, but concerns are escalating as energy demand increases and the political stability of many energy supply regions becomes more questionable. But how does one define and measure reliability? We introduce a method to assess reliability in energy supply systems in terms of adequacy and security. It derives from reliability assessment frameworks developed for the electricity sector, which are extended to include qualitative considerations and to be applicable to new energy systems by incorporating decision-making processes based on expert opinion and multi-attribute utility theory. The method presented here is flexible and can be applied to any energy system. To illustrate its use, we apply the method to two hydrogen pathways: 1) centralized steam reforming of imported liquefied natural gas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and 2) on-site electrolysis of water using renewable electricity produced independently from the electricity grid.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarthy, Ryan & Ogden, Joan M. & Sperling, Dan, 2008. "Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1dx4j35q, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1dx4j35q
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0jb3w61z, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. James S. Dyer & Thomas Edmunds & John C. Butler & Jianmin Jia, 1998. "A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternatives for the Disposition of Surplus Weapons-Grade Plutonium," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(6), pages 749-762, December.
    3. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    4. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt14g1g7t7, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. McCarthy, Ryan, 2004. "A Methodology to Assess the Reliability of Hydrogen-based Transportation Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3tt704km, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    Keywords

    UCD-ITS-RP-08-02; Engineering;

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