How rumors diffuse in the infodemic: Evidence from the healthy online social change in China

Infodemic is defined as ‘an overabundance of information-some accurate and some not-that makes it hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it’ by the World Health Organization. As unverified information, rumors can widely spread in online society, further diffusing infodemic. Existed studies mainly focused on rumor detection and prediction from the statement itself and give the probability that it will evolve into a rumor in the future. However, the detection and prediction from rumors production perspective is lack. This research explores the production mechanism from the uncertainty perspective using the data from Weibo and public rumor data set. Specifically, we identify the public uncertainty through user-generated content on social media based on systemic functional linguistics theory. Then we empirically verify the promoting effect of uncertainty on rumor production and constructed a model for rumor prediction. The fitting effect of the empirical model with the public uncertainty is significantly better than that with only control variables, indicating that our framework identifies public uncertainty well and uncertainty has a significantly predictive effect on rumors. Our study contributes to the research of rumor prediction and uncertainty identification, providing implications for healthy online social change in the post-epidemic era.