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Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling

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  • Yuskevich, Ilya
  • Smirnova, Ksenia
  • Vingerhoeds, Rob
  • Golkar, Alessandro

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel model-based approach to technology planning and roadmapping, consisting of two complementary steps: technology forecasting and game-theoretic planning. The inherent uncertainty of target technology performances, timelines and risks impact the roadmapping process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows elaborating different options and scenarios. A formal methodology is proposed for quantitative forecasting in a multi-dimensional space (different performance metrics and time) based on past technology development trend information. The method adopts concepts and approaches from econometrics and is formulated as a convex optimization problem with different constraints on the frontier's shape. It provides useful product line assessment benchmarks and helps to set reasonable goals for future technology developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuskevich, Ilya & Smirnova, Ksenia & Vingerhoeds, Rob & Golkar, Alessandro, 2021. "Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001931
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kraus, Sascha & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Kaur, Jaspreet & Sharma, Anuj & Schiavone, Francesco, 2023. "From moon landing to metaverse: Tracing the evolution of Technological Forecasting and Social Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Yuskevich, Ilya & Hein, Andreas Makoto & Amokrane-Ferka, Kahina & Doufene, Abdelkrim & Jankovic, Marija, 2021. "A metamodel of an informational structure for model-based technology roadmapping," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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