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The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis

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  • Beiderbeck, Daniel
  • Frevel, Nicolas
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.
  • Schmidt, Sascha L.
  • Schweitzer, Vera M.

Abstract

COVID-19 has had a tremendous impact on the world's society and economy. This also applies to European football; the continent's largest professional sports ecosystem has millions of employees in football-related jobs and even more people emotionally attached to the sport. To account for stakeholders' unprecedented level of uncertainty regarding regulatory, economic, social, and technological implications for their business, we systematically examine how COVID-19 will impact the future of the European football ecosystem in the short, medium and long term. We present a Delphi-based scenario analysis with 110 subject matter experts who assessed 15 future projections both on a quantitative and qualitative basis. We find that, for example, a salary cap for players would have the highest impact on the ecosystem, but it is unlikely to be implemented, while an increased awareness for social responsibility would be the most desirable effect of the crisis. To refine the results, we account for surface-level and deep-level characteristics of participants and find significant effects in both cases. We identify three different clusters of projections and discuss the potential threats and opportunities of COVID-19 for the European football ecosystem to contribute to the scientific discussion and to provide guidance for policy- and decision-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Beiderbeck, Daniel & Frevel, Nicolas & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schweitzer, Vera M., 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:165:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000093
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120577
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    4. Artur Grabowski, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown on the Activities of European Football Companies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 645-654.
    5. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Toma, Pierluigi & Campobasso, Francesco, 2023. "Using data analytics to capture the strategic and financial decision-making of Europe's top football club," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    7. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Beiderbeck, Daniel & Evans, Nicolas & Frevel, Nicolas & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2023. "The impact of technology on the future of football – A global Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    9. Severin J. S. Oeckl & Stephen Morrow, 2022. "CSR in Professional Football in Times of Crisis: New Ways in a Challenging New Normal," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, September.

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