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The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)

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  • Flostrand, Andrew
  • Pitt, Leyland
  • Bridson, Shannon

Abstract

Since the infancy of the Delphi Technique for collecting and aggregating expert insight, this methodological tool has been discussed, adapted and applied in over 2,600 published scholarly papers to date. This paper mines the major citation indexing services to analyze five dimensions of these data: primary contribution (methodological or applied), field and subfield, length (in pages), year, and journal/conference. Interpreted visual analytics of these five dimensions (both individually and in combination) provide researchers, practitioners and editors with clear insights about whether the Delphi technique is still as prominently used, discussed, and written about in the academic literature as it was twenty years ago and the related trends that might inform predictions of its future use. Among these insights, a simple time series of frequencies of Delphi publications by year immediately shows that academic acceptance of Delphi as a research tool is not only well established, but it has been growing in popularity and range of research domains for two decades predicting unprecedented levels of use in the years to come.

Suggested Citation

  • Flostrand, Andrew & Pitt, Leyland & Bridson, Shannon, 2020. "The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:150:y:2020:i:c:s0040162518300374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
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    15. Berbel-Vera, Jose & Barrachina Palanca, Mercedes & Gonzalez-Sanchez, Maria Beatriz, 2022. "Key CDO functions for successful digital transformation: Insights from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Marco Fidel Flórez & Jhon Fredys Linares & Eduardo Carrillo & Francisco Milton Mendes & Bruno de Sousa, 2022. "Proposal for a Framework to Develop Sustainable Tourism on the Santurbán Moor, Colombia, as an Alternative Source of Income between Environmental Sustainability and Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    17. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
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    21. Beiderbeck, Daniel & Evans, Nicolas & Frevel, Nicolas & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2023. "The impact of technology on the future of football – A global Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
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