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The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)

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  • Flostrand, Andrew
  • Pitt, Leyland
  • Bridson, Shannon

Abstract

Since the infancy of the Delphi Technique for collecting and aggregating expert insight, this methodological tool has been discussed, adapted and applied in over 2,600 published scholarly papers to date. This paper mines the major citation indexing services to analyze five dimensions of these data: primary contribution (methodological or applied), field and subfield, length (in pages), year, and journal/conference. Interpreted visual analytics of these five dimensions (both individually and in combination) provide researchers, practitioners and editors with clear insights about whether the Delphi technique is still as prominently used, discussed, and written about in the academic literature as it was twenty years ago and the related trends that might inform predictions of its future use. Among these insights, a simple time series of frequencies of Delphi publications by year immediately shows that academic acceptance of Delphi as a research tool is not only well established, but it has been growing in popularity and range of research domains for two decades predicting unprecedented levels of use in the years to come.

Suggested Citation

  • Flostrand, Andrew & Pitt, Leyland & Bridson, Shannon, 2020. "The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:150:y:2020:i:c:s0040162518300374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
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    4. Lutz Bornmann & Rüdiger Mutz, 2015. "Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 66(11), pages 2215-2222, November.
    5. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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    14. Natividad Buceta-Albillos & Esperanza Ayuga-Téllez, 2025. "Evaluating Perceptions of the Natural Environment in Relation to Outdoor Activities for a Healthy and Sustainable Life: A Delphi Methodological Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-17, February.
    15. Mazaheri, Maryam & Bonnin Roca, Jaime & Markus, Arjan & Tur, Elena M. & Walrave, Bob, 2024. "Maturity assessment of green patent clusters: Methodological implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Xu, Jinou & Pero, Margherita & Fabbri, Margherita, 2023. "Unfolding the link between big data analytics and supply chain planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Chen, Suwen & Harrison, Richard, 2020. "Beyond profit vs. purpose: Transactional-relational practices in impact investing," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    18. Geissler, Dominik & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik, 2024. "Emerging technologies and shifting consumer motives: Projecting the future of the top-tier sports media product," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Menéndez-Caravaca, Eloísa & Bueno, Salvador & Gallego, M. Dolores, 2021. "Exploring the link between free and open source software and the collaborative economy: A Delphi-based scenario for the year 2025," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Kluge, Ulrike & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    22. Beiderbeck, Daniel & Evans, Nicolas & Frevel, Nicolas & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2023. "The impact of technology on the future of football – A global Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    23. Zhou, Pengfei & Luo, Jie & Cheng, Fei & Yüksel, Serhat & Dinçer, Hasan, 2021. "Analysis of risk priorities for renewable energy investment projects using a hybrid IT2 hesitant fuzzy decision-making approach with alpha cuts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

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